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zenno/doc: initial work on front runner black magic

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2026-04-27 03:25:53 -04:00
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<script lang="ts">
import { resolve } from '$app/paths';
import Sec from '../Sec.svelte';
</script>
<article class="mx-auto max-w-4xl text-justify">
<Sec h="1" id="top" class="text-center">Front Runner Black Magic</Sec>
<p>
Front runners are playing a fundamentally different game versus other running styles. Building them isn't too hard, and their
careers tend to be easy, but the things you need (and don't need) to make a <i>really good</i> front runner are sometimes surprising.
</p>
<p>
This document is advanced material. The target audience intends to win Champions Meet Group A Finals. This is meant for
players who are already strong at training: players who can take a target stat line and skill set and turn it into a horse.
This is about what those stat lines and skill sets should be, along with <i>why</i>.
</p>
<Sec h="2" id="me">About Me</Sec>
<p>
Two or three weeks after Global launched, my friend told me to get a job, so I sent him a screenshot of me clicking the
install button on Umamusume. Since then, I have been a mostly-F2P player, with the single exception of the First Anniversary
SSR pick ticket. (I haven't even spent the accompanying paid carats.)
</p>
<p>
I'm committed to running exclusively triple fronts for every Champions' Meet, starting since CM8 Sagittarius Cup (Arima
Kinen). I've messed up a lot doing it, and gotten second in more CMs than not. In other words, I've figured out what makes
good fronts by seeing a lot of things that make bad fronts.
</p>
<p>
Well, that, and I'm very familiar with <a
href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?usp=sharing"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener noreferrer">KuromiAK's Race Mechanics doc</a
>, to the point that I make my own tools to calculate the benefit of obscure mechanics. And I've talked to a lot of
exceptionally knowledgeable folks on the
<a href="https://discord.gg/SyAVkbBSkx" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">GameTora Discord server</a>
to learn about ideas like lane combo and spark farming.
</p>
<p>
I want to share the knowledge I've accrued about front runners, because teaching is my favorite thing. Definitely not just to
rationalize running triple fronts for every CM even though most of my favorite horses are late surgers.
</p>
<Sec h="2" id="mechanics">Race Mechanics</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="win-cons">Win Conditions</Sec>
<!-- angling, victory cheer, pasta, unrestrained; c.f. nsm -->
<Sec h="3" id="position-keep">Position Keep</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="spot-struggle">Spot Struggle</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="skill-timing">Skill Timing</Sec>
<!-- length gain from early/mid vs late speed skills -->
<Sec h="3" id="runaway">Runaway</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="duels">Duels</Sec>
<!-- corner timing; experiment with nsm suzuka -->
<Sec h="2" id="stats">Stats</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="speed">Speed</Sec>
<!-- speed matters less than for other styles; corollary: distance S matters less -->
<Sec h="3" id="power">Power</Sec>
<!-- uphills; surface S -->
<Sec h="3" id="guts">Guts Actually Matters (Sometimes)</Sec>
<!-- spot struggle (again?) -->
<Sec h="3" id="wit">Wit</Sec>
<!-- position keep; front S -->
<Sec h="2" id="skills">Skills</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="gate-skills">Gate Skills</Sec>
<!-- gw, ttl, conc -->
<Sec h="3" id="lane-combo">Lane Combo</Sec>
<!-- dd, pp, ignited wit -->
<Sec h="3" id="front-speed-skills">Speed Skills – Front Runner Exclusives</Sec>
<!-- escape artist, front/distance corners/straights, leader's pride, speed eater (mile) -->
<Sec h="3" id="generic-speed-skills">Speed Skills – Generic</Sec>
<!-- thh, ramp up, pto, slipstream -->
<Sec h="3" id="spurt-skills">Spurt Skills</Sec>
<!-- barcarole, triumphant pulse, all i've got -->
<Sec h="3" id="others-skills">Other Horses' Skills</Sec>
<!-- all-seeing eyes; sfv, u=ma2, generally pos 3-4 skills -->
<Sec h="2" id="teams">CM Teams</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="solo-front">Solo Front</Sec>
<!-- front is not an ace; should probably be a runaway -->
<Sec h="3" id="double-front">Double Front</Sec>
<!-- ace front and backup -->
<Sec h="3" id="triple-front">Triple Front</Sec>
<!-- ace front, support, and backup; killing pos 3-4 skills -->
<Sec h="2" id="umas">Front Runners</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="coc">Christmas Oguri Cap</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="taiki-shuttle">Taiki Shuttle &amp; Curren Chan</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="future-fronts">Future Important Fronts</Sec>
<!-- rickey, kitasan white, halloween mayano -->
<Sec h="3" id="future-runaways">Future Runaways</Sec>
<Sec h="2" id="career">Career</Sec>
<p>
Most front runners enjoy easy careers thanks to strong kits and little chance to be blocked. This chapter details the minutia
of career races, especially in MANT.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="career-skills">Taking Skills</Sec>
<p>
Contrary to advice I sometimes see, you can, in fact, take skills during career without Fast Learner. When you take skills
mid-run without Fast Learner, and you happen to get it later, you effectively lose 10% of the SP you spent to that point.
However, you also <i>prune</i> hints: taking the first level of a skill removes it from the pools for support card hint bubbles,
MANT rivals, UC bursts, and everything else except events that grant specific hints. Each front-specific skill you own improves
your chance of getting skills you don't have hints for.
</p>
<p>
<b>Early Lead</b> is a snap take skill. The <i>only</i> time to sit on Early Lead is when you happen to get the first +1 hint
the turn before inspiration. (Even then, I'd probably still take it.) Early Lead is one of the strongest skills in terms of
lengths gained, it applies to all tracks and conditions, and <i>it saves late starts</i>, which are your only source of losses
on most races after junior year. Moreover, it has a base cost of only 120 SP; even if you do get Fast Learner after taking it,
your opportunity cost was 12 SP. If you prune Early Lead and a hint lands on Fast-Paced or Leader's Pride instead, you gave up
that potential 12 SP to save 18. It's incredibly good to take early.
</p>
<p>
On parent runs, or exactly one of your three CM horses, <b>Lone Wolf</b> is another snap take. Base cost of 60 SP for +40 speed,
which can secure a lot of races, especially early in career. Be extremely careful not to take it on multiple horses on a team. Save
and quit from the career if you need to check. It's technically better to have it on two horses than zero, but it's tremendously
better than that to have it on one.
</p>
<p>
<b>Angling and Scheming</b> is a strong consideration as a mid-career take. Inheritance events are more likely to activate green
sparks than white sparks, so the risk of missing out on SP by taking it early is higher. However, Angling is an almost automatic
win condition for career (outside a few certain tracks). Taking Angling early can save a lot of clocks, and it can rescue runs that
don't get what is normally the minimum speed to win races before summer.
</p>
<p>
<b>Front Runner Savvy</b> is a skill you will pretty much always want at least the first level of. Wit is a strong stat for front
runners, and Savvy is a guaranteed Groundwork trigger. It's also the second cheapest front-specific skill, after Dodging Danger.
On parent runs, it might be worth sitting on it until the +2 or +3 hint, because taking the second level gives a slightly boosted
chance to generate the spark, and hints save twice as much SP on the double circle.
</p>
<p>
<b>Front Runner Straightaways</b> and <b>Corners</b> are strong and cheap. If you've taken Early Lead and Angling, they probably
won't change the outcomes of any races, but it's still reasonable to take the first level to prune. As a corollary, outside parent
runs, you should have a specific distance in mind, so your distance straights/corners should also be quick takes.
</p>
<p>
If you get a +3 hint, <b>Focus</b> can act as a backup to Early Lead to prevent late starts that can kill your horse. Without a
+3 hint, it's expensive for the magnitude of its effect. It's also not a great skill for an ace on its own, so it's pretty skippable
in general if you aren't expecting Conc.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="niigata-1600">Niigata Junior Stakes</Sec>
<p>
Niigata Junior Stakes is the first non-sprint graded race in career, which means it's very likely to be one you run. It's also
an oddly anti-front race. Late race starts a good bit past the final corner, which means front runners don't have any skills
that can secure a win. (Unless you're inheriting Pasta? But VPP isn't really a good take mid-career.)
</p>
<p>
An interesting consequence of the shape of Niigata 1600 is that duels can start before late race. If you're doing a guts
build, having that happen will give quite a good chunk of accel and speed for the entire spurt, which is usually enough to get
the win. Duels are also pretty likely, because career races have more runners—as long as you're not a solo front.
</p>
<p>
If you do commit to the race and find yourself as the only front runner, switch to pace. You cannot win this race as a solo
front.
</p>
<p>
As a corollary, you also cannot win this race with B mile. A miraculous start can get to 350 speed for this race; a B mile
runner with 350 speed is equivalent to an A mile runner with only 207 speed in career. See the <a href={resolve('/spurt')}
>spurt calculator</a
>. (This race is why I made it.)
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="jbc-sprint">JBC Sprint</Sec>
<p>
An even more anti-front track is Ooi 1200 Dirt. This one is actively malicious. Visually, it looks like late race starts on a
corner, but the portion before the stretch is a special <i>neither corner nor straight</i> property. That means Angling won't activate,
and Pasta is delayed (though still within the accel period).
</p>
<p>
Fortunately, JBC Sprint is after summer, which means you should be able to stat diff your opponents. If you are planning to
win this race, e.g. for the +30 stat epithet for doing it twice, you may want to prioritize a bit of extra speed training, or
take Front Straights/Corners. Don't be too surprised if you lose a clock or five to a Taiki Shuttle rival.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="3k">Kikuka Sho &amp; Tenno Sho (Spring)</Sec>
<!-- stam requirements; run as late; no angling -->
<p>
The main concern with 3K races is always stamina. Front runners are punished on long distances because they convert stamina to
HP less efficiently than other styles.
</p>
<p>
A stat line like x/450/x/500/600 should be enough for a guts/wit build to win Kikuka Sho against most rivals, possibly at the
expense of a clock or two. TSS seems to need something more like x/700/x/700/700 if you don't have any recoveries; I haven't
tested much without them, because I don't like throwing away my runs.
</p>
<p>
Since approximately every front runner career will either be Valentine's Bourbon, whose unique skill has a recovery component,
or have Bourbon Wit, who gives the option for a guaranteed Moxie hint on her first chain event, you'll almost always have a
recovery available to take. Kitasan Black is the exception, since she has TTL built in. Regardless, if you end up overstam at
the end of the run, buying Moxie can be -162 SP, which is certainly not a trivial amount.
</p>
<p>
An alternative option to buying a recovery is to switch to Late Surger for those races. I've won Kikuka Sho with circa 300
stamina this way. Personally, I've decided I prefer buying Moxie in MANT so that rivals have a chance to give a useful skill,
but it's probably the wrong choice.
</p>
<p>
All that said, the stamina requirement is instantly much higher if the rival is Super Creek, Mejiro McQueen, or Rice Shower.
As rivals, those three will have very strong HP-oriented builds: on TSS, 650 stamina and at least one gold recovery. You will
burn clocks rolling for them to fail wit checks unless you also have a gold.
</p>
<p>
One last consideration for front runners on 3K races: Angling is a dead skill. If you're borderline on stamina, you'll have a
hard time if you're on Long C.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="kitasan-black">Kitasan Black</Sec>
<p>
Kitasan Black doesn't get the easy careers that other front runners do. For one thing, if you're training Kitasan, you
probably don't have Sei as a parent since their uniques don't mesh (except on Nakayama 2500). Kitasan's own unique is also
very weak outside of long races and unable to even activate on some miles, notably Niigata 1600. And for early races, notably
Niigata 1600, you likely won't even have the opportunity to get Front Straights/Corners, especially since you don't need
Bourbon Wit.
</p>
<p>
Kitasan benefits a lot from running as a Pace Chaser early on, just for the higher effective speed. Rivals are best defeated
with your intended style, but in career, winning is more important than front running.
</p>
</article>

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