zenno/doc/frbm: initial draft of most mechanics sections

zenno/src/routes/doc/frbm/+page.svelte

@@ -7,46 +7,137 @@
 	<Sec h="1" id="top" class="text-center">Front Runner Black Magic</Sec>
 	<p>
 		Front runners are playing a fundamentally different game versus other running styles. Building them isn't too hard, and their
-		careers tend to be easy, but the things you need (and don't need) to make a <i>really good</i> front runner are sometimes surprising.
+		careers tend to be easy, but some of the things you need (and don't need) to make a <i>really good</i> front runner are surprising.
 	</p>
 	<p>
-		This document is advanced material. The target audience intends to win Champions Meet Group A Finals. This is meant for
+		This document is advanced material. The target audience intends to win Champions Meet Group A Finals and either wants to use
-		players who are already strong at training: players who can take a target stat line and skill set and turn it into a horse.
+		front runners to do it or wants to understand what front runners they need to beat. This is meant for players who are already
-		This is about what those stat lines and skill sets should be, along with <i>why</i>.
+		strong at training: players who can take a target stat line and skill set and turn it into a horse. This is about what those
+		stat lines and skill sets should be, along with <i>why</i>.
 	</p>
 	<Sec h="2" id="me">About Me</Sec>
 	<p>
-		Two or three weeks after Global launched, my friend told me to get a job, so I sent him a screenshot of me clicking the
+		About three weeks after Global launched, my friend told me to get a job, so I sent him a screenshot of me clicking the install
-		install button on Umamusume. Since then, I have been a mostly-F2P player, with the single exception of the First Anniversary
+		button on Umamusume. Since then, I have been a mostly-F2P player, with the single exception of the First Anniversary SSR pick
-		SSR pick ticket. (I haven't even spent the accompanying paid carats.)
+		ticket. (I haven't even spent the accompanying paid carats.)
 	</p>
 	<p>
 		I'm committed to running exclusively triple fronts for every Champions' Meet, starting since CM8 Sagittarius Cup (Arima
-		Kinen). I've messed up a lot doing it, and gotten second in more CMs than not. In other words, I've figured out what makes
+		Kinen). When I'm not training for CM, I'm usually making front runner parents, and was at one time the owner of the Seiun Sky
-		good fronts by seeing a lot of things that make bad fronts.
+		with the most white sparks on global. I have a lot of experience training, running, and watching front runners.
 	</p>
 	<p>
-		Well, that, and I'm very familiar with <a
+		That said, most of the information here is ultimately my interpretations of <a
 			href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?usp=sharing"
 			target="_blank"
 			rel="noopener noreferrer">KuromiAK's Race Mechanics doc</a
-		>, to the point that I make my own tools to calculate the benefit of obscure mechanics. And I've talked to a lot of
+		>. Many of those interpretations are also informed by the exceptionally knowledgeable folks on the
-		exceptionally knowledgeable folks on the
+		<a href="https://discord.gg/SyAVkbBSkx" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">GameTora Discord server</a>.
-		<a href="https://discord.gg/SyAVkbBSkx" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">GameTora Discord server</a>
-		to learn about ideas like lane combo and spark farming.
 	</p>
 	<p>
 		I want to share the knowledge I've accrued about front runners, because teaching is my favorite thing. Definitely not just to
-		rationalize running triple fronts for every CM even though most of my favorite horses are late surgers.
+		rationalize running triple fronts for every CM even though it's not actually very good and most of my favorite horses are late
+		surgers.
 	</p>
 	<Sec h="2" id="mechanics">Race Mechanics</Sec>
-	<Sec h="3" id="win-cons">Win Conditions</Sec>
+	<p>
-	<!-- angling, victory cheer, pasta, unrestrained; c.f. nsm -->
+		Very quick gloss of race fundamentals. Races are divided into four phases: early race, mid race, late race, and last spurt
-	<Sec h="3" id="position-keep">Position Keep</Sec>
+		phase. They are also divided into twenty-four equal length sections. Early race is sections 1 to 4, mid race is sections 5 to
-	<Sec h="3" id="spot-struggle">Spot Struggle</Sec>
+		16, late race is sections 17 to 20, and last spurt phase is sections 21 to 24. Spot Struggle can start between 150m and the
-	<Sec h="3" id="skill-timing">Skill Timing</Sec>
+		end of section 5, and is forced to end at the start of section 9. Position Keep ends after section 10.
-	<!-- length gain from early/mid vs late speed skills -->
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		The numeric value of acceleration depends on the Power stat, dueling, surface aptitude, uphills, race phase, running style. At
+		the start of early race, horses accelerate from 3 m/s to the early race <i>base target speed</i>, which varies by race
+		distance and running style. At the start of late race, if they have enough HP remaining for their last spurt, horses
+		accelerate from the mid race base target speed to their spurt speed, which varies by speed stat, distance aptitude, race
+		distance, running style, and guts stat, in decreasing order of effect. "Last spurt" and "last spurt phase" are different and
+		unrelated things; the latter is only used in the condition for Homestretch Haste.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Speed skills add a flat amount of target speed, generally +0.15 m/s for white skills, +0.25 m/s for double circle skills and
+		some inherited uniques, +0.35 m/s for gold skills and most speed uniques, and +0.45 m/s for a handful of speed uniques. Accel
+		skills similarly add a flat amount of acceleration, either +0.1 or +0.2 m/s² for white skills and inherited uniques, or +0.3
+		or +0.4 m/s² for gold skills and uniques.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Generally speaking, competitive races are won by the horse who gets the most acceleration at the start of late race. The
+		consistency of front runner accel skills is what makes it a viable running style.
+	</p>
 	<Sec h="3" id="runaway">Runaway</Sec>
+	<p>
+		The skill <b>Runaway</b> converts front runners into the <i>Great Escape</i> running style. However, no player has ever uttered
+		the words "Great Escape" when talking about Umamusume, presumably because Runaway is a much cooler name.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Runaways are still front runners for most purposes, the main difference just being different base target speeds per phase.
+		Other mechanics that are specific to front runners also apply to runaways.
+	</p>
+	<Sec h="3" id="spot-struggle">Spot Struggle</Sec>
+	<p>
+		For each of runaways and non-runaways, there is at most one spot struggle per race. Runaways will not spot struggle with
+		non-runaways, nor vice-versa. When a spot struggle triggers, all front runnners of that type within range participate; I've
+		had a horse join while in 6th.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Spot struggle provides a target speed bonus that scales with the guts stat. If it isn't cut short, which will approximately
+		never happen, its duration scales with the guts stat. Unlike skills, its duration <i>does not</i> scale with race distance.
+	</p>
+	<Sec h="3" id="position-keep">Position Keep</Sec>
+	<p>Position Keep is the process by which pace chasers don't pass front runners in the mid race.</p>
+	<p>
+		During Position Keep, the frontmost front runner of each type uses <i>speed up mode</i> to try to stay at least 4.5m (a length
+		is 2.5m) ahead of second place, and other front runners use <i>overtake mode</i> to try to become the frontmost. Both of these modes
+		take wit checks to enter and apply a target speed bonus for their duration; overtake mode is slightly better than speed up mode.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Lesser running styles instead have <i>pace up mode</i> and <i>pace down mode</i>. Whether horses enter these is based on their
+		distance from the frontmost horse. Pace up also requires a wit check, but PDM doesn't – if a non-front horse gets too close to
+		the frontmost runner in the first 41.67% of the race, they are guaranteed to switch into PDM, which converts distance into HP.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Watch a MANT late surger with 1000+ power and wit in a solo practice match. When you see her advance forward early but then
+		moonwalk for two seconds to the back of the pack, that's PDM.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Converting distance into HP is quite a lot worse than just having enough HP. The fact that front runners don't have to worry
+		about PDM is one of their major strengths. In particular, it means that early race speed skills always gain distance for front
+		runners, which is not the case for the inferior styles.
+	</p>
+	<Sec h="3" id="skill-timing">Skill Timing</Sec>
+	<p>Thought experiment.</p>
+	<p>
+		Picture two cars driving on a straight freeway, both at exactly 59 mph because I am American, adjacent lanes, keeping exactly
+		side by side.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		The one on the right then drives 1 mph faster for three seconds, creating a slight gap between them before returning to the
+		previous speed. They now maintain this new gap.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		There is a 65 mph speed limit sign. As each of the cars pass it, they accelerate at identical rates from 59 to 69 mph over a
+		duration of exactly 10.2 seconds.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Since the car on the right is slightly ahead from the speed skill it used, it reaches the speed limit sign first, so it starts
+		accelerating first.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Until the left car reaches the sign, the right car is building a speed advantage. Having a higher speed during the accel
+		period, it continually increases the gap it had, until both of them have reached the new target speed.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Now the left car drives 1 mph faster for three seconds. It closes the gap between them by the same distance that the right
+		car's speed skill had done prior to the speed limit change.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		However, since the right car also added a distance advantage over the accel period, it remains slightly ahead of the left car.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		This thought experiment shows that speed skills are actually more valuable before late race than during it. Thus, front
+		runners not having to worry about PDM is even more of an advantage.
+	</p>
+	<!-- TODO: skill stacking -->
 	<Sec h="3" id="duels">Duels</Sec>
 	<!-- corner timing; experiment with nsm suzuka -->
 	<Sec h="2" id="stats">Stats</Sec>
@@ -59,6 +150,39 @@
 	<Sec h="3" id="wit">Wit</Sec>
 	<!-- position keep; front S -->
 	<Sec h="2" id="skills">Skills</Sec>
+	<Sec h="3" id="win-cons">Win Conditions</Sec>
+	<p>
+		On all medium races, almost every mile, many sprints, and some longs, <b>Angling and Scheming</b> is the second strongest single
+		skill currently in the game. Any time late race starts on (or, in the case of Nakayama 2500, very shortly before) a corner, Angling
+		is how front runners win. This means that Seiun Sky is the most important horse to front runner trainers. Everything about training
+		a front runner is for the sake of improving the odds of being the horse to trigger Angling – because only the horse in first gets
+		it.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Long races get a different primary win condition: <b>Victory Cheer!</b> from Kitasan Black. VC is more forgiving than Angling, activating
+		for both first and second place, but it's also weaker.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		The sprints where Angling is dead can try to work with <b>Victoria por plancha ☆</b> (Pasta) and <b>Give Mummy a Hug ♡</b>
+		(Mummy Creek) instead. These skills are also on the weaker side, so front running becomes more of a matter of gambling with skills
+		like Turbo Sprint, Rushing Gale, and Unrestrained. The closest anyone has to not-gambling on such sprints is Nishino Flower's unique,
+		though, and front runners are especially strong in sprints for <a href="#spot-struggle">other reasons</a>.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		If Angling is the second strongest skill, then the strongest is <b>No Stopping Me!</b>
+		Unfortunately, in most races, it is generally not a front runner skill. Because only one horse gets Angling, they will pull away
+		from whoever is in second, not giving a chance to activate NSM. For NSM to win on a front, the horse who got Angling has to not
+		be Seiun Sky (since Sei's own Angling is equal to NSM in strength), and there has to be no gap in the front pack so that it can
+		trigger. As I write this, I am 80 races into CM12 using a Silence Suzuka who has NSM, and it has been involved in exactly one win
+		where she leapfrogged off (my) Sei to pass (my) VBourbon (who placed second). It was cool, but she would have been better off in
+		the event if she hadn't had Yukino Wit in her deck.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		The above paragraph notwithstanding, NSM and even its white version, <b>Nimble Navigator</b>, are a decent choice for
+		multi-front builds on VC races. Since the top two horses both get VC, and the accel from it is weaker, having an extra push
+		for your second front is strong. VC maps also don't suffer from the final corner spread that makes NN/NSM hard to trigger on
+		sprints and miles.
+	</p>
 	<Sec h="3" id="gate-skills">Gate Skills</Sec>
 	<!-- gw, ttl, conc -->
 	<Sec h="3" id="lane-combo">Lane Combo</Sec>
@@ -208,4 +332,8 @@
 		Kitasan benefits a lot from running as a Pace Chaser early on, just for the higher effective speed. Rivals are best defeated
 		with your intended style, but in career, winning is more important than front running.
 	</p>
+	<Sec h="2" id="history">Version History</Sec>
+	<ul class="list-disc pl-4">
+		<li>2026-04-27: First draft of intro and career sections</li>
+	</ul>
 </article>