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zenno/doc/frbm: updates for 7-1 patch

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Branden J Brown
2026-07-07 11:16:09 -04:00
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zenno/src/routes/doc/frbm/+page.svelte
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@@ -3,6 +3,8 @@
import type { ComputedAreas, ComputedSeries, HorizontalRule } from '$lib/chart';
import {
AptitudeLevel,
conservePowerAccel,
distance,
downhillAccelEnterChance,
frontModeEnterChance,
HORSE_LENGTH,
@@ -89,8 +91,11 @@
loneWolf: allSkills.get(201641),
slipstream: allSkills.get(201651),
pto: allSkills.get(201661),
headon: allSkills.get(201902),
risky: allSkills.get(202032),
runaway: allSkills.get(202051),
fr: allSkills.get(202462),
burningPOW: allSkills.get(210031),
burningWIT: allSkills.get(210051),
ignitedWIT: allSkills.get(210052),
radiant: allSkills.get(210061),
@@ -209,6 +214,12 @@
y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
},
]);
const fcSeries: ComputedSeries[] = $derived([
{ label: 'Front Runner', y: (x) => conservePowerAccel(distance(raceLen), RunningStyle.FrontRunner, x) },
{ label: 'Pace Chaser', y: (x) => conservePowerAccel(distance(raceLen), RunningStyle.PaceChaser, x) },
{ label: 'Late Surger', y: (x) => conservePowerAccel(distance(raceLen), RunningStyle.LateSurger, x) },
{ label: 'End Closer', y: (x) => conservePowerAccel(distance(raceLen), RunningStyle.EndCloser, x) },
]);
</script>
<Article>
@@ -233,6 +244,28 @@
</p>
{/snippet}
<Sec h={2} id="7-1">1 Jul Balance Update</Sec>
<p>A quick summary of how the 1 Jul balance update affects front runners:</p>
<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
<li>
Pace chasers and late surgers gained access to much more consistent accel skills. Still not as good as Angling, but good
enough that front runners can be considered substantially nerfed.
</li>
<li>
<a href="#full-charge">Conserving Power/Fully Charged</a> is in, along with stat uncaps, which means that about 1270 power
(base + skills) is now worth a perfectly timed 0.1 accel skill on front runners. The exact mechanics of conserving power
aren't yet known, but front runners show a <i>negative correlation</i> between guts stat and probability of activating full charge.
As good as spot struggle may be in sprint, a perfect accel is always going to be better, so we are now actively minimizing guts.
</li>
<li>
A solo front no longer loses access to speed-up mode. However, having watched a few dozen replays, it seems that while a
solo front is typically about 2 to 4 meters ahead of the best pace at position keep end, the best front in multi-front is
typically about 6 to 10 meters ahead. Solo front still overwhelmingly benefits other styles. The main impact of the position
keep changes in practice seems to be that pace promotion can happen <i>even if there are front runners in the lobby</i>,
which means you can't skimp on gate skills when running solo front as a pace promo blocker.
</li>
</ul>
<Sec h={2} id="me">About Me</Sec>
<p>
About three weeks after Global launched, my friend told me to get a job, so I sent him a screenshot of me clicking the install
@@ -259,14 +292,6 @@
some of the information from the race mechanics doc in chart form, but I will generally leave out exact mechanic numbers and
conditions; the doc is already the place for that information.
</p>
<p>
Also worth mentioning is that I've been unemployed for over two years, with a computer science degree that is increasingly
difficult for an anti-AI person to apply. If this article helps you, I'd be tremendously grateful if you could <a
href="https://ko-fi.com/zephyrtronium"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener noreferrer">drop me some spare change</a
>.
</p>
<Sec h={2} id="mechanics">Race Mechanics</Sec>
<p>
@@ -371,9 +396,8 @@
</p>
<p>
The running modes for front runners are speed-up (+4% target speed for first among that front type) and overtake (+5% for
not-first). Entering these modes requires meeting certain conditions relating to positioning, which collectively can be read
as "solo fronts are heavily penalized." (With the 1.5 anni balance patch, we expect that solo fronts will be given more
forgiving running mode conditions.) They also require passing a wit check, with the same chance for both modes.
not-first). Entering these modes requires meeting certain conditions relating to positioning. They also require passing a wit
check, with the same chance for both modes.
</p>
<div class="mx-auto h-60 w-full max-w-3xl md:h-96">
<StatChart
@@ -392,14 +416,14 @@
whenever a horse gets what their style defines as too close to first place.
</p>
<p>
Watch a MANT late surger with 1000+ power and wit in a daily legend race. As long as they don't get blocked, they should <a
Watch a UC late surger with 1200+ power and wit in a daily legend race. As long as they don't get blocked, they should <a
href="#section-speed">slide forward</a
> throughout the early race. Then, around when they reach the pace chaser pack, they'll suddenly start moonwalking back to the rest
of the late surgers, often near the back of the group. That's PDM.
</p>
<p>
On styles with PDM, early race and sometimes mid race speed skills are effectively converted from distance gain into HP
conservation. The thing that really makes front runners good is that they don't have to worry about that &ndash; they aren't
conservation. The thing that really makes front runners strong is that they don't have to worry about that &ndash; they aren't
subject to PDM at all. Their mid race speed skills always gain distance.
</p>
@@ -411,7 +435,8 @@
</p>
<p>
Spot struggle provides a target speed bonus that scales with the guts stat. If it isn't cut short, which will approximately
never happen, its duration also scales with the guts stat. Unlike skills, its duration <i>does not</i> scale with race distance.
never happen outside of sprint, its duration also scales with the guts stat. Unlike skills, its duration <i>does not</i> scale with
race distance.
</p>
<div class="mb-4 grid h-60 w-full grid-cols-2 md:h-96">
<StatChart stat={Stat.Guts} y={ssBoostSeries} yLabel="Speed Bonus (m/s)" range={[0, 0.4]} />
@@ -421,7 +446,7 @@
Spot struggle also greatly increases HP consumption. For normal front runners, the rate is slightly less than Rushed. For
runaways, it's more than double Rushed. (This is the reason people say you can't get enough stamina for runaways on Global.)
Actually getting Rushed during spot struggle dramatically increases HP consumption, much more than just adding them together;
red-light green-light pretty much guarantees that horse won't spurt.
red-light green-light pretty much guarantees that horse won't full spurt.
</p>
<p>
In medium+ races, the extra HP consumption is a serious consideration; front runners need more stamina and recoveries than
@@ -429,6 +454,47 @@
multiple gold speed skills in total distance gained. See the <a href={resolve('/race/mspeed')}>mechanical speed calculator</a> for
precise analysis.
</p>
<p>
However, while the details aren't yet known, it appears that spot struggle reduces <a href="#full-charge">conserved power</a>,
which means that front runners who spot struggle are less likely to full charge, and the probability falls as the spot
struggle duration rises.
</p>
<Sec h={3} id="full-charge">Conserve Power &amp; Fully Charged</Sec>
<p>
New in the 1 Jul balance patch is the conserve power mechanic. Horses with base power plus power passive skills greater than
1200 effectively gain access to a free perfectly-timed accel skill, Fully Charged. The effectiveness of full charge varies
with running style and distance, but it is greatest for front runners at all distances.
</p>
<div class="mb-24 h-60 w-full md:mb-20 md:h-96">
<StatChart
class="mx-auto mb-12 h-full w-full max-w-3xl md:mb-10"
stat={Stat.Power}
y={fcSeries}
yLabel="Accel Bonus (m/s²)"
range={[0, 0.25]}
plotOptions={{ color: { legend: true } }}
/>
<div class="mx-auto flex w-full md:max-w-2xl">
<label class="my-auto hidden flex-none pr-2 text-right text-sm md:inline" for="secSpeedRaceLen">Race Length</label>
<input
class="my-auto max-w-40 flex-1 md:flex-2"
type="range"
id="secSpeedRaceLen"
min="1000"
max="3600"
step="100"
bind:value={raceLen}
/>
<span class="my-auto flex-none pl-2 text-sm">{raceLen}m</span>
</div>
</div>
<p>
The exact mechanics of conserving power are unclear at this time. What has been confirmed is that rushed and <a
href="#spot-struggle">spot struggle</a
> both reduce the chance for it to fire. Since spot struggle duration scales with guts, it appears that taking high guts to benefit
from the strength of spot struggle has become likely to deprive you of an even stronger mechanic.
</p>
<Sec h={3} id="lane-combo">Lane Combo</Sec>
<p>
@@ -674,7 +740,7 @@
<Sec h={3} id="spurt-skills">Spurt Skills</Sec>
<p>
Because they are post-Angling, skills that activate in the final spurt are typically less interesting to front runners.
Notable exceptions are <Skill skill={skills.barcaroleInherit} /> and, on Tokyo turf, <Skill
Notable exceptions are <Skill skill={skills.fr} />, <Skill skill={skills.barcaroleInherit} /> and, on Tokyo turf, <Skill
skill={skills.inesInherit}
/><!-- skill name ends with ! -->
These are good inherits for those who don't have easy access to <Skill skill={skills.cacaoInherit} mention /> and <Skill
@@ -708,8 +774,8 @@
</p>
<p>
Eyes especially has the potential to be threatening, since it's roughly unconditional. However, it hits others <i>in vision</i
>, which is essentially always a range of 20m. Debuffers are typically built with very little stamina and power, so Eyes is
almost never going to reach front runners, especially the front who got Angling.
>, which is essentially always a range of 20m, or 8 lengths. Debuffers are typically built with very little stamina and power,
so Eyes is almost never going to reach front runners, especially the front who got Angling.
</p>
<p>
The other category of skills to think about is other horses' uniques.
@@ -753,6 +819,10 @@
Obviously, CM is run in teams of three. While spamming the highest stats you can manage is a valid strategy that will get
wins, building a team holistically will lead to higher win rates.
</p>
<p>
N.B. This section has only partially been updated for the 1 Jul balance patch, which means that some of the advice especially
relating to runaways and spot struggle is out of date. A full update here probably won't come until after CM17 Virgo Cup.
</p>
<Sec h={3} id="pace-promo">Zero Front</Sec>
<p>
@@ -790,21 +860,20 @@
<Sec h={3} id="solo-front">Solo Front</Sec>
<p>
Because solo fronts essentially don't have access to their <a href="#front-modes">running modes</a>, they are unlikely to
build enough of a lead over paces to win, even with Angling. (This should change to some degree with the release of Grand
Live, as solo fronts will get an extra long speed-up zone.)
build enough of a lead over paces to win, even with Angling. (This changed a bit with the 1 Jul balance patch, as solo fronts
now get an extra-long speed-up range, but it doesn't appear that they're maintaining much of a gap over paces in practice.)
</p>
<p>
In particularly front-dominated metas, this is manageable, since you'll have opponent fronts to run against. When any other
style is viable, which is probably always now that Nishino Flower exists, you'll have matches where your team's front runner
is solo. The best choice for how to design a solo front depends on the rest of your team composition, because ultimately the
choice you are faced with is whether to use a runaway blocker.
style is viable, which is always now that <Skill skill={skills.headon} mention /> is buffed, you'll have matches where your team's
front runner is solo. The best choice for how to design a solo front depends on the rest of your team composition, because ultimately
the choice you are faced with is whether to use a runaway blocker.
</p>
<p>
In the MANT era, building a runaway that can defeat normal front runners is difficult. For one thing, a runaway existing means
that all fronts have access to overtake mode for position keep, which is better than speed-up mode. Moreover, beating their
mid race skill list requires some lucky hints in Unity Cup. The ideal runaway blocker has capped power, capped wit, and
surface S, along with full gate and <a href="#lane-combo">lane combos</a> where applicable, to build as much of an early race lead
as possible.
The ideal runaway blocker has capped power, capped wit, and surface S, along with full gate and <a href="#lane-combo"
>lane combos</a
> where applicable, to build as much of an early race lead as possible. Her speed stat doesn't particularly matter, because her
job is to block, not to win.
</p>
<p>
Because runaways get so far ahead during the first half of the race, they essentially disable <a href="#pdm">pace-down mode</a
@@ -826,12 +895,12 @@
<p>
There is still a difference between dual ace double front and double front with an ace and a backup. The ideal stat lines and
skill lists will be the same between the two styles, but character choice will be different. In particular, dual ace wants
both to have strong speed uniques &ndash; VBourbon, SMaru, Ines Fujin on Tokyo turf.
both to have strong speed uniques &ndash; VBourbon or SMaru.
</p>
<p>
With an ace and a backup, the ace is the one with the speed unique, and the other is a horse who gambles on winning mid race
and turns that into a first place finish. Seiun Sky is the strongest such option; as an own unique rather than inherited,
Angling gives so much perfectly timed accel that speed inherits give her more lengths than other accel skills.
Angling gives so much perfectly timed acceleration that speed inherits give her more lengths than other accel skills.
</p>
<p>
Since your two front runners are both meant to be winners, making your third horse a support type is likely to give the best
@@ -853,12 +922,6 @@
long distance; front runners are common generally here.) So, double front for long is ultimately about the same as double front
for other distances, just with different goals when choosing the legacy.
</p>
<p>
Given that NN is good, it's also worth considering the gold version, <Skill skill={skills.nsm} /><!-- ends with ! -->
NSM is a better skill for the long double front build, but for now, the only way to get it while running MANT is from Yukino Bijin
Wit. That card's numbers are not great. It's still possible to get a good stat line using her, but it will take more careers to
get there than to just get NN from Fine Motion.
</p>
<p>
If you're feeling adventurous, runaway is another consideration for double (and triple) front on long distances. Your ace
(hopefully) still gets VC, but the runaway paces up the race. As mentioned in the <a href="#solo-front">solo front</a>
@@ -888,10 +951,10 @@
</p>
<p>
The fact that triple front tries to occupy positions 3-4 lets you do some very interesting team comps where you run pace
chasers as front runners. E.g., I ran Taiki Shuttle as front in dirt CM and Curren Chan as front in sprint CM. This is not
terribly consistent because they're readily equipped to get into first just as easily as third, but then they just get Angling
instead and follow the normal front runner game plan. If you see people talking about a pace chaser being especially strong
for a given CM, consider running them as a front runner in a triple front build instead.
chasers as front runners. E.g., I ran Taiki Shuttle as front in CM10 on dirt and Curren Chan as front in the CM9 sprint. This
is not terribly consistent because they're readily equipped to get into first just as easily as third, but then they just get
Angling instead and follow the normal front runner game plan. If you see people talking about a given pace chaser being
especially strong for a CM, consider running them as a front runner in a triple front build instead.
</p>
<p>
A more mechanical type of support is to build for <a href="#spot-struggle">spot struggle</a> and have her pull your less gutsy fronts
@@ -905,13 +968,13 @@
showing. In addition to the normal front win cons, it's potentially strong to take unconditional gambles like <Skill
skill={skills.cornerConn}
mention
/> and <Skill skill={skills.radiant} mention />.
/>, <Skill skill={skills.burningPOW} mention />, and <Skill skill={skills.radiant} mention />.
</p>
<p>
SS supports do best on medium and long tracks, because you want to be building <i>everyone</i> for spot struggle on miles and
sprints. However, spot struggle is the only mechanic in the game that scales superlinearly with stats, so even the difference
between 1200 and 1000 guts can matter enough to justify an extra guts focus on the SS support in miles. See the
<a href={resolve('/race/mspeed')}>mechanical speed calculator</a> for details.
Now that <a href="#full-charge">conserving power</a> is a game mechanic, SS supports have the problem that spot struggle risks
taking away full charge, which means losing a strong accel. This can be alleviated to some degree by managing
<a href="#lane-combo">Dodging Danger</a> to keep your ace out of the spot struggle &ndash; either the ace has lane combo and the
other two don't, or the ace doesn't have it and the other two do.
</p>
<div class="hidden" id="chariot"></div>
@@ -934,15 +997,17 @@
/>, so the normal fronts (typically UG1 or better) pass them during early race.
</p>
<p>
If this build ever had an era, it was during Unity Cup, when NSM was essentially free and there was no VC. I don't think it's
viable now.
If this build ever had an era, it was during the first pass of Unity Cup, when NSM was essentially free and there was no VC.
We have reworked UC for one CM before Our Grand Concert releases, but it's a sprint CM that overwhelmingly favors pace
chasers. I don't think it's viable now.
</p>
<Sec h={2} id="career">Career</Sec>
<p>Most front runners enjoy easy careers thanks to strong kits and little chance to be blocked.</p>
<p>
Currently, this chapter is about MANT (a.k.a. Trackblazer). Unity Cup is still useful &ndash; obviously for runaways, but also
for spinning up an <Skill skill={skills.ignitedWIT} mention /> legacy.
Currently, this chapter is about MANT (a.k.a. Trackblazer). Current data for CM16 following the URA and UC reworks suggests
that MANT horses win approximately just as much as UC horses relative to their respective populations, despite the lower stat
caps. So, I am going to leave this section largely untouched until the next scenario releases.
</p>
<Sec h={3} id="support-cards">Support Cards</Sec>
@@ -1170,7 +1235,8 @@
<Sec h={3} id="taiki-shuttle">Taiki Shuttle &amp; Curren Chan</Sec>
<p>
When building <a href="#triple-front">triple fronts</a>, you will naturally have a horse in third. This presents an
opportunity to use a horse who is normally a pace chaser as a type of gambler.
opportunity to use a horse who is normally a pace chaser, with a strong unique that requires position 3 or behind, as a type
of gambler.
</p>
<p>
Taiki Shuttle and original Curren Chan are notable for having C and B front, respectively, which is quite reasonable to fix.
@@ -1196,14 +1262,15 @@
<Sec h={3} id="sparks">Important Sparks</Sec>
<p>
Front runners are uniquely capable of making good use of all stat (blue) sparks, since guts is unusually important for them.
Power sparks are typically still best, and stamina sparks can help to forgo a stamina card or two for 2400m+ builds. Fronts
have a disproportionate representation of horses with high speed talent, which makes speed sparks a bit less valuable.
Front runners are uniquely capable of making good use of wit sparks, since wit governs early- and mid-race speed, which is
unusually important for them. Power sparks are typically still best, and stamina sparks can help to forgo a stamina card or
two for 2400m+ builds. Fronts have a disproportionate representation of horses with high speed talent, which makes speed
sparks a bit less valuable.
</p>
<p>
Pink sparks are more interesting, because &ndash; at least until other styles catch up on accels &ndash; they're less reliant
on distance S to win. Building a high affinity legacy tree requires keeping some mile and long sparks on hand. Front sparks
are better than other style sparks, especially if you do <a href="#triple-front">triple front</a> CM builds using
Pink sparks are more interesting, because &ndash; at least until other styles finish catching up on accels &ndash; they're
less reliant on distance S to win. Building a high affinity legacy tree requires keeping some mile and long sparks on hand.
Front sparks are better than other style sparks, especially if you do <a href="#triple-front">triple front</a> CM builds using
<a href="#taiki-shuttle">fixed pace chasers</a>.
</p>
<p>Front runners are more reliant than other styles on getting certain skills from inspiration:</p>
@@ -1221,7 +1288,7 @@
<li>
<Skill skill={skills.ignitedWIT} /> is the stronger lane combo piece. The only sources of it are inheritance and Unity Cup; which
is to say, the source of it is inheritance. When searching databases for borrows, looking for Ignited WIT is a shortcut for listing
good front runner legacies, since it's only valuable to fronts and somewhat hard to get even when you focus on it.
good front runner legacies, since it's only valuable to fronts.
</li>
<li>
Almost all green skills are valuable to inherit at one point or another as GW triggers.
@@ -1236,12 +1303,17 @@
</li>
<li>
All generic speed skills that aren't strictly late race are good inherits.
<Skill skill={skills.risky} /> is the best one by ratio of strength to difficulty to acquire.
<Skill skill={skills.risky} /> is the best one by ratio of strength to difficulty to acquire; if you aren't forced to borrow Smart
Falcon, you can get the gold version of this from Nakayama Festa Wit.
<Skill skill={skills.thh} />, <Skill skill={skills.pto} />, <Skill skill={skills.ramp} />, and <Skill
skill={skills.cornerAdept}
/> are also strong, but available as hints or chain skills from some usable-to-good cards.
</li>
<li>Obviously, getting front-runner-specific skills from inheritance makes them cheaper and more consistent to get.</li>
<li>
Getting front-runner-specific skills from inheritance has become especially important now that reworked UC doesn't give
skills according to aptitudes. This is a significant reason for MANT to remain the parenting scenario, arguably even more so
than the higher affinity potential.
</li>
</ul>
<Sec h={3} id="parents">Parents</Sec>
@@ -1270,7 +1342,8 @@
</li>
<li>
Mayano Top Gun doesn't have an actual front runner variant (until Halloween Mayano in 2028 or so), but she acts like a front
runner for affinity. In particular, Maya and Kitasan is the highest base compatibility pair currently in the game.
runner for affinity. In particular, Maya and Kitasan is among the highest base compatibility pairs currently in the game.
(They were #1 prior to the 1 Jul balance patch, but now that spot goes to Tamamo Cross and Inari One.)
</li>
<li>
TM Opera O is technically a pace chaser parent, but she still has good compatibility with most front runners, and her unique
@@ -1286,6 +1359,37 @@
<Sec h={2} id="cm">My CM Teams</Sec>
<Sec h={3} id="cm16">CM16 &ndash; Leo Cup (Sprinters Stakes)</Sec>
<p>
The <a href="#7-1">1 Jul balance patch</a> redefined everything for everyone, and front runners are suddenly actually quite bad.
I guess the stakes are lower for my triple front mandate.
</p>
<p>
An additional interesting detail is that this track has no straights before late race. That means straight velos are much less
important.
</p>
<p>
I had some amazing luck with support card pulls and got both Maruzensky and Nakayama Festa to MLB in 400. Are these runs what
it feels like to not be F2P?
</p>
<ol class="mb-4 list-decimal pl-4">
<li>Suzuka gets to be a runaway again!</li>
<li>
Mejiro Palmer gets to have G sprint fixed and be a second runaway! Hopefully she will both stay in front of Taiki and not
block Suzuka!
</li>
<li>
Taiki Shuttle has a very-nearly-perfect 3-4 unique, which will be great with her as a front runner. Given the importance of
skills, I'm building her in MANT.
</li>
</ol>
<p>
This CM will be interesting as the first opportunity to use multiple runaways and not have them be vaporized by spot struggle.
I'll actually want to click on power to make sure I break 1200, and I'll want to minimize guts to conserve more power, which
means I'll reasonably get the ca. 800 stamina required for them to survive. The only downside is that runaways, and front
runners broadly, are not actually good here, because <Skill skill={skills.headon} mention /> is so wildly good in sprint now.
</p>
<Sec h={3} id="cm15">CM15 &ndash; Cancer Cup (Takarazuka Kinen)</Sec>
<p>
Kitasan's unique ends about a sixth of a second before late race starts, which means massive carryover potential (although
@@ -1309,6 +1413,14 @@
ace, and that's what Chocobon does best.
</li>
</ol>
<p>Win rates are a bit messy because I experimented with a few different comps and Throne reworks. After 80:</p>
<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
<li>VBourbon: 28-15-17-20</li>
<li>Kitasan: 12-14-11-38 (of 75)</li>
<li>Suzuka: 8-5-7-60 = 8-4-6-37 + 0-1-1-23 (replaced after 25; I ended up not using a runaway either time)</li>
<li>Seiun Sky: 0-0-2-3 (of 5)</li>
</ul>
<p>Lost finals to two COCs, one getting Pump and the other NSM, while Chocobon blew velos during accel.</p>
<Sec h={3} id="cm14">CM14 &ndash; Gemini Cup (Yasuda Kinen, NHK Mile Cup, Victoria Mile)</Sec>
<p>