horse/zenno/src/routes/doc/frbm/+page.svelte

<script lang="ts">
	import { resolve } from '$app/paths';
	import type { ComputedAreas, ComputedSeries, HorizontalRule } from '$lib/chart';
	import {
		AptitudeLevel,
		conservePowerAccel,
		distance,
		downhillAccelEnterChance,
		frontModeEnterChance,
		HORSE_LENGTH,
		moveLaneModifier,
		paceUpEnterChance,
		Phase,
		RUNNING_STYLES,
		RunningStyle,
		sectionSpeed,
		skillWitCheck,
		spotStruggleDuration,
		spotStruggleSpeed,
		Stat,
		uphillMod,
	} from '$lib/race';
	import Skill from '$lib/Skill.svelte';
	import StatChart from '$lib/StatChart.svelte';
	import { onMount } from 'svelte';
	import Article from '../Article.svelte';
	import Sec from '../Sec.svelte';
	import * as skill from '$lib/data/skill';
	import RaceLenSlider from '$lib/RaceLenSlider.svelte';

	let raceLen = $state(2000);
	let secSpeedStyle = $state(RunningStyle.FrontRunner);

	let allSkillsList: skill.Skill[] = $state([]);
	onMount(async () => {
		allSkillsList = await skill.skills();
	});
	const allSkills = $derived(allSkillsList.reduce((m, s) => m.set(s.skill_id, s), new Map<number, skill.Skill>()));
	const skills = $derived({
		view: allSkills.get(100021),
		sfv: allSkills.get(100101),
		uma2: allSkills.get(100321),
		falcoUlt: allSkills.get(100461),
		palmerUlt: allSkills.get(100641),
		kfc: allSkills.get(110041),
		cacao: allSkills.get(110261),
		right: allSkills.get(200012),
		left: allSkills.get(200022),
		firm: allSkills.get(200152),
		compSpirit: allSkills.get(200282),
		professor: allSkills.get(200331),
		cornerAdept: allSkills.get(200332),
		cornerConn: allSkills.get(200341),
		rushingGale: allSkills.get(200371),
		conc: allSkills.get(200431),
		focus: allSkills.get(200432),
		centerStage: allSkills.get(200451),
		pp: allSkills.get(200452),
		ramp: allSkills.get(200462),
		nsm: allSkills.get(200491),
		nn: allSkills.get(200492),
		homestretchHaste: allSkills.get(200512),
		ttl: allSkills.get(200531),
		earlyLead: allSkills.get(200532),
		escapeArtist: allSkills.get(200541),
		fastPaced: allSkills.get(200542),
		unrestrained: allSkills.get(200551),
		encroaching: allSkills.get(200641),
		spurt: allSkills.get(200642),
		turboSprint: allSkills.get(200651),
		maven: allSkills.get(200681),
		tunes: allSkills.get(200721),
		greed: allSkills.get(201081),
		speedEater: allSkills.get(201082),
		siphon: allSkills.get(201221),
		murmurGold: allSkills.get(201161),
		longStraights: allSkills.get(201172),
		blast: allSkills.get(201173),
		straights: allSkills.get(201242),
		corners: allSkills.get(201252),
		sixthSense: allSkills.get(201261),
		dd: allSkills.get(201262),
		topRunner: allSkills.get(201271),
		leadersPride: allSkills.get(201272),
		moxie: allSkills.get(201282),
		shrewd: allSkills.get(201332),
		eyes: allSkills.get(201441),
		savvy: allSkills.get(201522),
		stan: allSkills.get(201591),
		lucky7: allSkills.get(201562),
		gw: allSkills.get(201601),
		thh: allSkills.get(201611),
		loneWolf: allSkills.get(201641),
		slipstream: allSkills.get(201651),
		pto: allSkills.get(201661),
		syl: allSkills.get(201662),
		headon: allSkills.get(201902),
		risky: allSkills.get(202032),
		runaway: allSkills.get(202051),
		madDash: allSkills.get(202392),
		claw: allSkills.get(202421),
		fr: allSkills.get(202462),
		burningPOW: allSkills.get(210031),
		burningWIT: allSkills.get(210051),
		ignitedWIT: allSkills.get(210052),
		radiant: allSkills.get(210061),
		wwyou: allSkills.get(210071),
		rsmood: allSkills.get(210141),
		redshiftInherit: allSkills.get(900041),
		pulseInherit: allSkills.get(900061),
		anglingInherit: allSkills.get(900201),
		ogbourbonInherit: allSkills.get(900261),
		pumpInherit: allSkills.get(900271),
		inesInherit: allSkills.get(900311),
		uma2Inherit: allSkills.get(900321),
		beyondInherit: allSkills.get(900591),
		vcInherit: allSkills.get(900681),
		pastaInherit: allSkills.get(900141),
		blossomInherit: allSkills.get(900511),
		machanInherit: allSkills.get(900871),
		kfcInherit: allSkills.get(910041),
		barcaroleInherit: allSkills.get(910151),
		cacaoInherit: allSkills.get(910261),
		mummyCreekInherit: allSkills.get(910451),
	});

	function mean2(x: [number, number]): number {
		return (x[0] + x[1]) * 0.5;
	}
	function modemean(x: number, bonus: number, p: number): number {
		return x * (1 - p) + x * bonus * p;
	}

	const uphillSlowPow = 800;
	const uphillFastPow = 1200;
	const uphillBaseSpeed = mean2(sectionSpeed(2500, 1200, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.MidRace));
	const uphillSlopes = [
		{ per: 2, len: 110 },
		{ per: 1.5, len: 200 },
	]
		.map((s) => ({ ...s, slowSpeed: uphillMod(uphillSlowPow, s.per), fastSpeed: uphillMod(uphillFastPow, s.per) }))
		.map((s) => ({ ...s, slowTime: s.len / (uphillBaseSpeed + s.slowSpeed), fastTime: s.len / (uphillBaseSpeed + s.fastSpeed) }))
		// TODO(zeph): should include the difference with decel down to uphill speed and accel out of it,
		// since the high power horse is favored for both
		.map((s) => ({ ...s, dx: (s.fastSpeed - s.slowSpeed) * s.fastTime + s.slowSpeed * (s.slowTime - s.fastTime) }));
	const uphillLengths = uphillSlopes.reduce((m, { dx }) => m + dx, 0) / HORSE_LENGTH;

	const secSpeedS = 1200;
	const secSpeedA = 1000;
	const secSpeedExample = $derived(sectionSpeed(raceLen, secSpeedS * 1.1, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.EarlyRace));
	const secSpeedInfo = $derived(secSpeedExample.map((x) => x.toFixed(2)).join(' to '));
	const secSpeedPassTime = $derived.by(() => {
		const sSecSpeed = mean2(sectionSpeed(raceLen, secSpeedS * 1.1, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.MidRace));
		const sMode = frontModeEnterChance(secSpeedS * 1.1);
		const sOvertakeSpeed = modemean(sSecSpeed, 1.05, sMode);
		const aSecSpeed = mean2(sectionSpeed(raceLen, secSpeedA, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.MidRace));
		const aMode = frontModeEnterChance(secSpeedA);
		const aSpeedupSpeed = modemean(aSecSpeed, 1.04, aMode);
		const r = 2 / (sOvertakeSpeed - aSpeedupSpeed);
		return r.toFixed(1);
	});

	const frontModeCheckSeries: ComputedSeries[] = [
		{ label: 'Aptitude S', y: (x) => 100 * frontModeEnterChance(x * 1.1) },
		{ label: 'Aptitude A', y: (x) => 100 * frontModeEnterChance(x) },
	];
	const skillCheckSeries: ComputedSeries[] = [
		{ label: '1 of 1', y: (x) => 100 * skillWitCheck(x, 1, 1) },
		{ label: '1 of 2 or 2 of 2', y: (x) => 100 * (skillWitCheck(x, 2, 1) + skillWitCheck(x, 2, 2)) },
		{ label: '2 of 2', y: (x) => 100 * skillWitCheck(x, 2, 2) },
	];
	const ssBoostSeries: ComputedSeries = { label: 'Target Speed Boost', y: (x) => spotStruggleSpeed(x) };
	const ssDurSeries: ComputedSeries[] = [
		{ label: 'Front Runner S', y: (x) => spotStruggleDuration(x, AptitudeLevel.S) },
		{ label: 'Front Runner A', y: (x) => spotStruggleDuration(x, AptitudeLevel.A) },
	];
	const laneComboSeries: ComputedSeries = { label: 'Target Speed Boost', y: (x) => moveLaneModifier(x) };
	const lcYRule: HorizontalRule[] = [
		{ label: '+0.35', y: 0.35 },
		{ label: '+0.45', y: 0.45 },
	];
	const uphillSeries: ComputedSeries[] = [
		{ label: '+2 Hill', y: (x) => uphillMod(x, 2.0) },
		{ label: '+1.5 Hill', y: (x) => uphillMod(x, 1.5) },
		{ label: '+1 Hill', y: (x) => uphillMod(x, 1.0) },
	];
	const uphillYRule: HorizontalRule[] = [{ label: 'Dominator', y: -0.25 }];
	const downhillSeries: ComputedSeries[] = [
		{ label: 'Style S', y: (x) => downhillAccelEnterChance(x * 1.1) * 100 },
		{ label: 'Style A', y: (x) => downhillAccelEnterChance(x) * 100 },
	];
	const secIsFront = $derived(secSpeedStyle === RunningStyle.FrontRunner || secSpeedStyle === RunningStyle.Runaway);
	const secSpeedSeries: Array<ComputedAreas | null> = $derived([
		{
			label: 'Early Race',
			y1: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[0],
			y2: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[1],
		},
		{
			label: 'Mid Race',
			y1: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[0],
			y2: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1],
		},
		secIsFront
			? {
					label: 'Early Race + Mean Speed-Up Mode',
					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
				}
			: {
					label: 'Early Race + Mean Pace-Up Mode',
					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
				},
		secIsFront
			? {
					label: 'Mid Race + Mean Speed-Up Mode',
					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
				}
			: {
					label: 'Mid Race + Mean Pace-Up Mode',
					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
				},
	]);
	const fcSeries: ComputedSeries[] = $derived([
		{ label: 'Front Runner', y: (x, raw) => conservePowerAccel(distance(raceLen), RunningStyle.FrontRunner, raw, x) },
		{ label: 'Pace Chaser', y: (x, raw) => conservePowerAccel(distance(raceLen), RunningStyle.PaceChaser, raw, x) },
		{ label: 'Late Surger', y: (x, raw) => conservePowerAccel(distance(raceLen), RunningStyle.LateSurger, raw, x) },
		{ label: 'End Closer', y: (x, raw) => conservePowerAccel(distance(raceLen), RunningStyle.EndCloser, raw, x) },
	]);
</script>

<Article>
	{#snippet head()}
		<Sec h={1} id="top" class="text-center">Front Runner Black Magic</Sec>
		<p>
			Front runners are playing a fundamentally different game versus other running styles. Building them isn't too hard, and
			their careers tend to be easy, but some of the things you need (and don't need) to make a <i>really good</i> front runner are
			surprising.
		</p>
		<p>
			This document is advanced material. The target audience intends to win Champions Meet Group A Finals and either wants to use
			front runners to do it or wants to understand what front runners they need to beat. This is meant for players who are
			already strong at training: players who can take a target stat line and skill set and turn it into a horse. This document is
			about the mechanics that determine what those stat lines and skill sets should be.
		</p>
		<p>
			It is taken as a premise that the reader of this document is familiar with
			<a href="https://gametora.com/umamusume" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">GameTora</a>
			and
			<a href="https://uma.moe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">uma.moe</a>.
		</p>
	{/snippet}

	<Sec h={2} id="7-1">1 Jul Balance Update</Sec>
	<p>A quick summary of how the 1 Jul balance update affects front runners:</p>
	<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
		<li>
			Pace chasers and late surgers gained access to much more consistent accel skills. Still not as good as Angling, but good
			enough that front runners can be considered substantially nerfed.
		</li>
		<li>
			<a href="#full-charge">Conserving Power/Fully Charged</a> is in, along with stat uncaps, which means that about 1270 power
			(base + skills) is now worth a perfectly timed 0.1 accel skill on front runners. The exact mechanics of conserving power
			aren't yet known, but front runners show a <i>negative correlation</i> between guts stat and probability of activating full charge.
			As good as spot struggle may be in sprint, a perfect accel is always going to be better, so we are now actively minimizing guts.
		</li>
		<li>
			A solo front no longer loses access to speed-up mode. However, having watched a few dozen replays, it seems that while a
			solo front is typically about 2 to 4 meters ahead of the best pace at position keep end, the best front in multi-front is
			typically about 6 to 10 meters ahead. Solo front still overwhelmingly benefits other styles. The main impact of the position
			keep changes in practice seems to be that pace promotion can happen <i>even if there are front runners in the lobby</i>,
			which means you can't skimp on gate skills when running solo front as a pace promo blocker.
		</li>
	</ul>

	<Sec h={2} id="me">About Me</Sec>
	<p>
		About three weeks after Global launched, my friend told me to get a job, so I sent him a screenshot of me clicking the install
		button on Umamusume. Since then, I have been an F2P player, with the single exception of the First Anniversary SSR pick
		ticket. (I haven't even spent the accompanying paid carats.)
	</p>
	<p>
		I'm committed to running exclusively triple fronts for every Champions' Meet, starting since CM8 Sagittarius Cup (Arima
		Kinen). When I'm not training for CM, I'm usually making front runner parents, and was at one time the owner of the Seiun Sky
		with the most white sparks on global. I have a lot of experience training, running, and watching front runners.
	</p>
	<p>
		I want to share the knowledge I've accrued about front runners, because teaching is my favorite thing. Definitely not just to
		rationalize running triple fronts for every CM even though it's not actually very good and most of my favorite horses are late
		surgers.
	</p>
	<p>
		That said, most of the information in this document is ultimately my interpretations of <a
			href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?usp=sharing"
			target="_blank"
			rel="noopener noreferrer">kuromiAK's Race Mechanics doc</a
		>. Many of those interpretations are also informed by the exceptionally knowledgeable folks on the
		<a href="https://discord.gg/SyAVkbBSkx" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">GameTora Discord server</a>. I may present
		some of the information from the race mechanics doc in chart form, but I will generally leave out exact mechanic numbers and
		conditions; the doc is already the place for that information. Some sections have "Ref &UpperRightArrow;" links that will take
		you to the corresponding section of the mechanics doc.
	</p>

	<Sec
		h={2}
		id="mechanics"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.3q7x98goz5cu"
		>Race Mechanics</Sec
	>
	<p>
		Very quick gloss of race fundamentals. Races are divided into four phases: early race, mid race, late race, and last spurt
		phase. They are also divided into twenty-four equal length sections. Early race is sections 1 to 4, mid race is sections 5 to
		16, late race is sections 17 to 20, and last spurt phase is sections 21 to 24. Spot Struggle can start between 150m and the
		end of section 5, and is forced to end at the start of section 9. <i>Position keep</i> ends after section 10.
	</p>
	<p>
		The numeric value of acceleration depends on the Power stat, dueling, surface aptitude, uphills, race phase, running style. At
		the start of early race, horses accelerate to the early race <i>base target speed</i>, which varies by race distance and
		running style but is generally in the vicinity of 20 m/s.
	</p>
	<p>
		At the start of late race, if they have enough HP remaining for their last spurt, horses accelerate from the mid race base
		target speed to their spurt speed, which varies by speed stat, distance aptitude, running style, race distance, and guts stat,
		in decreasing order of effect. "Last spurt" and "last spurt phase" are different and unrelated things; the latter is only used
		mechanically in the condition for <Skill skill={skills.homestretchHaste} mention />.
	</p>
	<p>
		Speed skills add a flat amount of target speed, generally +0.15 m/s for white skills, +0.25 m/s for double circle skills and
		some inherited uniques, +0.35 m/s for gold skills and most speed uniques, and +0.45 m/s for a handful of speed uniques. Accel
		skills similarly add a flat amount of acceleration, typically +0.1 or +0.2 m/s² for white skills and inherited uniques, or
		+0.3 or +0.4 m/s² for gold skills and uniques.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="runaway">Runaway</Sec>
	<p>
		The skill <Skill skill={skills.runaway} /> converts front runners into the Runaway running style.
	</p>
	<p>
		Runaways are still front runners for all purposes. The difference is just different numbers for things like base speed and
		acceleration, stamina to HP conversion, and distance thresholds for running modes. Other mechanics that are specific to front
		runners also apply to runaways.
	</p>

	<Sec
		h={3}
		id="phase-speed"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.40iug3hm8429"
		>Phase Speed</Sec
	>
	<p>
		Race base speed is multiplied by the <i>speed strategy&ndash;phase coefficient</i> for each horse. As the name suggests, SSPC is
		different per running style and per race phase. It's the thing that makes runaways take off in early race, and the thing that makes
		pace chaser promotion scary in late race.
	</p>
	<p>
		Front runners, and even moreso runaways, have particularly punishing SSPC for late race. This makes sense; if they weren't
		forced to be substantially slower than the late surgers they're thirty meters ahead of at late race start, then they would be
		guaranteed to win every time.
	</p>
	<p>
		The late race speed difference means that, in a competitive setting, the speed stat (and, correspondingly, distance aptitude)
		aren't what make front runners win most of the time. Capped speed with distance S is ideal, but being a hundred speed short
		with distance A will likely lose only a couple races within the difference throughout a CM event.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="win-cons">Win Conditions</Sec>
	<p>
		Generally more important than speed itself (for all running styles) is landing an acceleration skill at the beginning of late
		race. The strength of front runners is having the most consistent options for doing so.
	</p>
	<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
		<li>
			<Skill skill={skills.anglingInherit} />, sometimes called Rod, is currently the second best skill in the game. Its condition
			is to be in first place on any late race corner, which is the case immediately at the start of late race on all medium
			tracks,
			<a href="#niigata-1600">all but one mile</a>, and some sprints.
		</li>
		<li>
			On long distance tracks, <Skill skill={skills.vcInherit} /> takes that role instead. The front two horses get it, and it has half
			the acceleration value.
		</li>
		<li>
			For 1200m sprints, <Skill skill={skills.machanInherit} /> (Machan inherit) is always a good option. Whenever Angling is dead on
			a sprint, <Skill skill={skills.pastaInherit} /> (VPP, or Pasta) is the next best thing. Multi-front builds also have access to
			<Skill skill={skills.mummyCreekInherit} /> (HCreek). It takes two of these three to equal Angling in acceleration, so such sprints
			will also need to gamble on <Skill skill={skills.turboSprint} mention />, <Skill skill={skills.rushingGale} mention />, and
			possibly <Skill skill={skills.unrestrained} mention /> instead. Front runners are especially strong on sprints for
			<a href="#spot-struggle">other reasons</a> anyway.
		</li>
	</ul>
	<p>
		<Skill skill={skills.nsm} /> is the best skill in the game. Unfortunately, for the most part, it's bad on front runners; generally
		not a win condition. Activating NSM requires not being in first, which means whoever <i>was</i> used Angling and is pulling
		away from you before you accumulate the blocked time to activate it. That said, on VC tracks specifically, NSM or its white
		version <Skill skill={skills.nn} mention /> can be an option for multi-front builds, since the two frontmost horses get VC and final
		corner lane movement hasn't happened.
	</p>

	<Sec h={2} id="positioning">Positioning Mechanics</Sec>
	<p>
		The theme among front runner win conditions is requiring being in or very close to first place when late race starts. So,
		lesser running styles aside, beating other fronts is a matter of manipulating skills and race mechanics to win in early and
		mid race.
	</p>

	<Sec
		h={3}
		id="front-modes"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.tn8irhl5bjhv"
		>Speed-Up and Overtake Modes</Sec
	>
	<p>
		During the first 41.67% of the race, <i>position keep</i> is busy arranging each running style into their respective packs.
		During position keep, all horses have access to <i>running modes</i> that influence how they run.
	</p>
	<p>
		The running modes for front runners are speed-up (+4% target speed for first among that front type) and overtake (+5% for
		not-first). Entering these modes requires meeting certain conditions relating to positioning. They also require passing a wit
		check, with the same chance for both modes.
	</p>
	<div class="mx-auto h-60 w-full max-w-3xl md:h-96">
		<StatChart
			class="mx-auto h-full w-full max-w-3xl"
			stat={Stat.Wit}
			y={frontModeCheckSeries}
			yLabel="Entry Chance (% each 2 seconds)"
			range={[25, 50]}
			xRule={1200}
		/>
	</div>

	<Sec
		h={3}
		id="pdm"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.5x2q33mxvumk"
		>Pace Down Mode</Sec
	>
	<p>
		The running modes for all other running styles are pace-up, which is similar to speed-up, and pace-down, which activates
		whenever a horse gets what their style defines as too close to first place.
	</p>
	<p>
		Watch a late surger with 1200+ power and wit in a daily legend race. As long as they don't get blocked, they should <a
			href="#section-speed">slide forward</a
		> throughout the early race. Then, around when they reach the pace chaser pack, they'll suddenly start moonwalking back to the rest
		of the late surgers, often near the back of the group. That's PDM.
	</p>
	<p>
		On styles with PDM, early race and sometimes mid race speed skills are effectively converted from distance gain into HP
		conservation. One of the things that really make front runners strong is that they don't have to worry about that &ndash; they
		aren't subject to PDM at all. Their mid race speed skills always gain distance.
	</p>

	<Sec
		h={3}
		id="spot-struggle"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.5l523bk8k3vz"
		>Spot Struggle</Sec
	>
	<p>
		For each of runaways and non-runaways, there is at most one spot struggle per race. Runaways will not spot struggle with
		non-runaways, nor vice-versa. When a spot struggle triggers, all front runnners of that type within range participate; I've
		had a horse join while in 6th a couple times.
	</p>
	<p>
		Spot struggle provides a target speed bonus that scales with the guts stat. If it isn't cut short, which will approximately
		never happen outside of sprint, its duration also scales with the guts stat. Unlike skills, its duration <i>does not</i> scale with
		race distance.
	</p>
	<div class="mb-4 grid h-60 w-full grid-cols-2 md:h-96">
		<StatChart stat={Stat.Guts} y={ssBoostSeries} yLabel="Speed Bonus (m/s)" range={[0, 0.4]} />
		<StatChart stat={Stat.Guts} y={ssDurSeries} yLabel="Duration (s)" range={[0, 14]} />
	</div>
	<p>
		Spot struggle also greatly increases HP consumption. For normal front runners, the rate is slightly less than Rushed. For
		runaways, it's more than double Rushed. (This is the reason people say you can't get enough stamina for runaways on Global.)
		Actually getting Rushed during spot struggle dramatically increases HP consumption, much more than just adding them together;
		<i>red-light green-light</i> pretty much guarantees that horse won't full spurt.
	</p>
	<p>
		In medium+ races, the extra HP consumption is a serious consideration; front runners need more stamina and recoveries than
		other styles. At 1600m and shorter, the fact that Spot Struggle doesn't scale with race distance means that it can be worth
		multiple gold speed skills in total distance gained. See the <a href={resolve('/race/mspeed')}>mechanical speed calculator</a> for
		precise analysis.
	</p>
	<p>
		While the details aren't yet known, it appears that spot struggle reduces <a href="#full-charge">conserved power</a>. This
		means that front runners who spot struggle are less likely to full charge, and the probability falls as the spot struggle
		duration rises. In my experience, this stops being a problem for 1600m and longer; my CM18 Chocobon with qualifying power
		fully charged whenever she wasn't rushed. Perhaps fortunately, full charge is weakest on sprint, where spot struggle is
		strongest. So, if you can make the build work, it may still be worth trying a guts build for short races.
	</p>

	<Sec
		h={3}
		id="full-charge"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.9edgwx6l733b"
		>Conserve Power &amp; Fully Charged</Sec
	>
	<p>
		New in the 1 Jul balance patch is the conserve power mechanic. Horses with base power plus power passive skills greater than
		1200 effectively gain access to a free perfectly-timed accel skill, Fully Charged. The effectiveness of full charge varies
		with running style and distance, but it is greatest for front runners at all distances.
	</p>
	<div class="mb-24 h-60 w-full md:mb-20 md:h-96">
		<StatChart
			class="mx-auto mb-12 h-full w-full max-w-3xl md:mb-10"
			stat={Stat.Power}
			y={fcSeries}
			yLabel="Accel Bonus (m/s²)"
			range={[0, 0.25]}
			plotOptions={{ color: { legend: true } }}
		/>
		<div class="mx-auto flex w-full md:max-w-2xl">
			<label class="my-auto mr-2 hidden flex-none pr-2 text-right text-sm md:inline" for="secSpeedRaceLen">Race Length</label>
			<RaceLenSlider bind:value={raceLen} />
		</div>
	</div>
	<p>
		Rushed and <a href="#spot-struggle">spot struggle</a> reduce both the duration and effectiveness of full charge, potentially to
		zero. In practice, this appears to be a concern primarily on sprints, which already have a -55% penalty to full charge duration.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="lane-combo">Lane Combo</Sec>
	<p>
		While under the influence of a skill that increases lane movement speed (shoe icon skills), and while actively changing lanes
		(i.e. moving sideways), horses gain a (forward) target speed boost that scales with power. This was a change Global received
		with the Unity Cup scenario.
	</p>
	<div class="mb-4 h-60 w-full md:h-96">
		<StatChart
			class="mx-auto h-full w-full max-w-3xl"
			stat={Stat.Power}
			y={laneComboSeries}
			yLabel="Speed Boost"
			yRule={lcYRule}
			range={[0.2, 0.6]}
		/>
	</div>
	<p>
		Front runners have access to the skill <Skill skill={skills.dd} />, which forces a horse who uses it to move outward to a
		specific distance from the rail. DD almost always activates while the horse is still accelerating to early race speed, so it
		does not convert much of the move lane speed modifier into distance (although still on the order of a gold speed skill worth
		of gain on most medium races).
	</p>
	<p>
		We get advantage from move lane speed modifier by following DD with <Skill skill={skills.pp} /> or <Skill
			skill={skills.ignitedWIT}
		/>. DD created an opportunity for those return skills to convert into huge forward speed. This setup is called
		<i>lane combo</i>.
	</p>
	<p>
		Lane combo is best on tracks where early race ends before or at most very early into the first corner. PP and Ignited WIT can
		activate at the very end of early race. If there's a corner there, and your horse is still on the outside from DD, you are now
		physically running a longer distance than those on the inside. That can more than undo the gain from the lane combo itself.
	</p>
	<p>
		For similar reasons, DD <i>without</i> PP or Ignited WIT is likely to be a net negative on some tracks, especially Nakayama 2500,
		Kyoto 3000, and Chukyo 1800 dirt. In sprints, it gives no benefit because it can't outlast early race accel. Otherwise, DD can be
		an efficient pickup as a short burst of high speed to gain position.
	</p>
	<p>
		The gold versions of lane combo skills &ndash; <Skill skill={skills.sixthSense} mention />, <Skill
			skill={skills.centerStage}
			mention
		/>, <Skill skill={skills.burningWIT} mention /> &ndash; are excellent to take on parents, but they generally make lane combo itself
		less effective. They have stronger lane change movement boosts, which does not affect the forward speed boost and is likely to make
		it last a shorter time, since the horse will return to the rail more quickly.
	</p>
	<p>
		For the same reasons, Ignited WIT is a bit stronger than PP, because it has a <i>smaller</i> effect value and also a longer base
		duration. The tradeoff is that it is a 200 SP base cost skill, versus 120 base cost for PP. Using both skills is viable: it increases
		consistency at the cost of lowering the maximum gain.
	</p>
	<p>
		The <a href={resolve('/race/mspeed')}>mechanical speed calculator</a> has an approximation of lane combo's benefit. A more
		precise lane combo simulator exists at
		<a href="https://lanecalc.hf-uma.net/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">危険回避シミュ</a>. See
		<a href={resolve('/doc/lanecalc')}>my guide</a> for English instructions on how to use it.
	</p>

	<Sec
		h={3}
		id="uphills"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.wdj69udyo340"
		>Uphills</Sec
	>
	<p>
		Running uphill carries a penalty to target speed. This penalty scales negatively with the power stat; that is, higher power
		means faster uphill running. It scales positively with slope angle. There is also a flat reduction in base acceleration for
		running uphill, which does not change with stats nor slope angle.
	</p>
	<div class="mb-4 h-60 w-full md:h-96">
		<StatChart
			class="mx-auto h-full w-full max-w-3xl"
			stat={Stat.Power}
			y={uphillSeries}
			yLabel="Uphill Speed Modifier (m/s)"
			yRule={uphillYRule}
			range={[-2, 0]}
		/>
	</div>
	<p>
		Note that surface aptitude <i>does not</i> affect uphill speed, nor power generally. It only affects acceleration.
	</p>
	<p>
		The practical impact is that steep early- and mid-race hills filter out front runners with low power. All else equal, a Seiun
		Sky with {uphillFastPow} power gains an average of about {uphillLengths.toFixed(1)} lengths over a VBourbon with {uphillSlowPow}
		power on the Arima Kinen mid-race hills.
	</p>

	<Sec
		h={3}
		id="downhills"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.wdj69udyo340"
		>Downhills</Sec
	>
	<p>
		Running downhill allows horses to enter <i>downhill accel mode</i>. Contrary to its name, downhill accel mode does not affect
		acceleration at all; it gives horses a target speed boost that scales with the slope angle, plus lowered HP consumption via a
		flat multiplier.
	</p>
	<p>
		Entering downhill accel mode requires passing a wit check. The success rate scales linearly with wit. Style aptitude <i
			>does</i
		> affect the chance to pass the check. Its duration is random with a geometric distribution (win an RNG roll every second); it does
		not scale with stats.
	</p>
	<div class="mb-4 h-60 w-full md:h-96">
		<StatChart
			class="mx-auto h-full w-full max-w-3xl"
			stat={Stat.Wit}
			y={downhillSeries}
			yLabel="Entry Chance (% each second)"
			range={[0, 75]}
		/>
	</div>
	<p>
		Similar to uphills disproportionately rewarding front runners with higher power, downhills tend to reward high wit. However,
		the random elements of downhill accel mode mean that lower wit horses may still keep up on downhills, depending on luck.
		Conversely, the HP savings on long downhills can be enough to drop a recovery skill or two on some tracks.
	</p>

	<Sec
		h={3}
		id="section-speed"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.xdha40q2176g"
		>Section Speed</Sec
	>
	<p>Each section, each horse gets a random modifier to target speed. The modifier's range is determined by the wit stat.</p>
	<div class="mb-24 h-60 w-full md:mb-20 md:h-96">
		<StatChart
			class="mx-auto mb-12 h-full w-full max-w-3xl md:mb-10"
			stat={Stat.Wit}
			yArea={secSpeedSeries}
			yLabel="Section Speed (m/s)"
			range={[17, 23]}
			plotOptions={{ color: { legend: true } }}
		/>
		<div class="mx-auto flex w-full md:max-w-2xl">
			<label class="my-auto mr-2 hidden flex-1 pr-2 text-right text-sm md:inline" for="secSpeedRaceLen">Race Length</label>
			<RaceLenSlider bind:value={raceLen} />
			<label class="my-auto hidden flex-1 pr-2 text-right text-sm md:inline" for="secSpeedStyle">Style</label>
			<select class="my-auto flex-1 text-sm" id="secSpeedStyle" bind:value={secSpeedStyle}>
				{#each RUNNING_STYLES as [name, style] (style)}
					<option value={style}>{name}</option>
				{/each}
			</select>
		</div>
	</div>
	<p>
		Section speed is generally very small. For a {secSpeedS} wit style S front runner at {raceLen}m, it's an actual speed range of {secSpeedInfo}
		m/s.
	</p>
	<p>
		It isn't negligible, though, since it applies during the portion of the race where front runners are trying to become frontest
		runners. All else equal, including the effects of <a href="#front-modes">running modes</a>, such a horse blocked in front by a {secSpeedA}
		wit front A horse will pass in {secSpeedPassTime} seconds on average at mid race speeds.
	</p>

	<Sec
		h={3}
		id="no-zone"
		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.7l02ti4pvzxp"
		>No-Overtake Zone</Sec
	>
	<p>
		The no-overtake zone is the 200m portion of the race prior to the first corner. For unclear reasons, while in the no-overtake
		zone, horses cannot enter overtake lane mode, which is what allows them to move away from the rail. (Overtake lane mode is
		different from overtake mode, which is a front runner <a href="#front-modes">position keep running mode</a>.)
	</p>
	<p>
		Inside the no-overtake zone, if a horse is blocked in front, the only action available to her is to slow down. Speed skills
		are generally wasted when they fire in the no-overtake zone, unless the horse is either in the lead or still on the outside
		from DD or gate position.
	</p>
	<p>
		For the most part, there's nothing you can do about the no-overtake zone. The exception to this is with Smart Falcon, who has
		a speed unique that can fire on any mid race straight. On Tokyo 1600 (both turf and dirt), the first corner is far enough into
		mid race that <Skill skill={skills.falcoUlt} /> is likely to fire before entering the no-overtake zone, helping to propel her into
		a lead that other front runners can't challenge until the corner begins &ndash; which is especially strong because it's harder to
		pass on corners, and on those tracks, that corner lasts all the way into late race. Later front runners like Ballroom Helios will
		get kits even more suited to taking advantage of this mechanic.
	</p>

	<Sec h={2} id="skills">Skills</Sec>
	<p>Since competitive horses in the current era tend to have similar stat lines, skills are especially important.</p>
	<p>
		Speed skills are especially valuable for front runners, because they assist in overtakes and defense. Some skills are worth
		special mention.
	</p>
	<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
		<li>
			On miles, <Skill skill={skills.speedEater} /> is the strongest speed skill in the game, because it is both a full strength speed
			skill (i.e. +0.15 target speed for base 3s) and a full strength speed debuff. It plays both offense and defense simultaneously.
			Every front runner should have it on every mile. Speed Eater technically has a gold version, <Skill
				skill={skills.greed}
				mention
			/>, but Cygames apparently recognized that it must not ever be allowed to exist, because there's still no source of it on
			JP.
		</li>
		<li>
			<Skill skill={skills.thh} /> is a full strength speed skill that is triggered by other skills, so it excels at stacking &ndash;
			triggering THH with another speed skill is very likely to secure a pass.
		</li>
		<li>
			<Skill skill={skills.ramp} /> is only a half strength speed skill (base 1.8s), but it fires upon overtake, which helps to turn
			that into a complete pass.
		</li>
		<li>
			<Skill skill={skills.pto} /> and <Skill skill={skills.slipstream} /> are mechanically similar full-strength speed skills with
			cooldowns, so they can fire multiple times per race. Slipstream requires not being in first, and it's always wasted if it triggers
			during the <a href="#no-zone">no-overtake zone</a>, so it's marginally weaker. Both want multi-front builds. PTO is
			especially relevant in Grand Concert, since Light Hello gives its gold version, <Skill skill={skills.syl} />
		</li>
	</ul>

	<Sec h={3} id="gate-skills">Gate Skills</Sec>
	<p>
		Gate skills are <Skill skill={skills.gw} /> (GW), <Skill skill={skills.earlyLead} />, and <Skill skill={skills.conc} /> (Conc),
		as well as all green skills including <Skill skill={skills.runaway} mention /> (but excluding <Skill
			skill={skills.lucky7}
			mention
		/> and <Skill skill={skills.rsmood} mention />). These skills activate the moment the race starts. Other running styles can
		largely ignore them, but for front runners, they are critical.
	</p>
	<p>
		GW is an absolutely mandatory skill for all front runners. Even runaway blockers should have it, otherwise they will be passed
		by the normal fronts they're trying to block. It requires three other gate skills, which should be applicable greens to avoid
		overreliance on wit checks &ndash; for reference, the chart below shows wit check pass chances of one of one, one of two, or
		two of two skills.
	</p>
	<div class="mb-4 h-60 w-full md:h-96">
		<StatChart
			class="mx-auto h-full w-full max-w-3xl"
			stat={Stat.Wit}
			y={skillCheckSeries}
			yLabel="% Chance"
			range={[50, 100]}
			xRule={1000}
		/>
	</div>
	<p>
		GW must be combined with <Skill skill={skills.earlyLead} /> if you want any chance of being first out of early race. The gold version
		of EL, <Skill skill={skills.ttl} />, is highly accessible as the skill from the Mihono Bourbon Wit event SSR. In practice,
		I've found it adds fewer lengths over the white, and hence less positioning ability, than a mid race gold speed skill. It is
		still absolutely <i>good</i>, and Bourbon Wit is a very usable card (treat her as a speed card that gives extra energy on
		wit), but I don't consider it mandatory on normal fronts. Runaways may choose to borrow Palmer Stam for a better source of
		TTL, along with a bit of extra stamina that they are likely to need.
	</p>
	<p>
		Conc is less critical. It's worth taking on horses who have it, but it isn't worth using support card slots just to get it. On
		the other hand, its white version, <Skill skill={skills.focus} />, is bad; its only real use is as a backup gate skill for GW
		when you don't have enough greens available. During GL, we happen to be in the interesting position that Mihono Bourbon's
		scenario link gives Conc, meaning Bourbon Wit can give 2/3 of a gate kit on her own.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="spurt-skills">Spurt Skills</Sec>
	<p>
		Because they are post-Angling, skills that activate in the final spurt are typically less interesting to front runners.
		Notable exceptions are <Skill skill={skills.fr} /> and the inherits <Skill skill={skills.ogbourbonInherit} />, <Skill
			skill={skills.barcaroleInherit}
		/> and, on Tokyo turf, <Skill skill={skills.inesInherit} /><!-- skill name ends with ! -->
		The latter three are good inherits for those who don't have easy access to <Skill skill={skills.cacaoInherit} mention /> and <Skill
			skill={skills.kfcInherit}
			mention
		/> &ndash; OG Bourbon particularly for runaways or solo front builds, since its powered up version requires never dropping below
		2nd.
	</p>
	<p>
		<Skill skill={skills.pulseInherit} /> is another spurt skill that may come up sometimes and is interesting to think about. It's
		a 0.25 speed skill that requires being in at best second place to activate. Is it worth it to take?
	</p>
	<p>
		In a typical race, exactly one horse triggered Angling. All other front runners are far behind that horse by the time Pulse
		can trigger. It's very unlikely they will have enough speed to catch up. So, if a horse has passed the front runner who used
		Angling, they are almost certainly a different running style.
	</p>
	<p>
		The <a href={resolve('/race/spurt')}>spurt speed calculator</a> analyzes this situation. A 1600 speed front runner with a 0.25 speed
		skill active has speed equivalent to a 1581 speed pace chaser. In other words, as long as that pace chaser is built the way Global
		players tend to build, Pulse does not allow the front runner to pass back. So, if you happen to inherit it off a grandparent, it
		is not worth taking.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="others-skills">Other Horses' Skills</Sec>
	<p>There are two categories of other horses' skills to think about.</p>
	<p>
		The first is stamina debuffs: <Skill skill={skills.eyes} />, <Skill skill={skills.murmurGold} />, <Skill
			skill={skills.siphon}
		/>. My conclusion is that Global doesn't understand how to build debuffers, so front runners can mostly ignore these &ndash;
		assume one will hit you, but not three.
	</p>
	<p>
		Eyes especially has the potential to be threatening, since it's roughly unconditional. However, it hits others <i>in vision</i
		>, which is essentially always a range of 20m, or 8 lengths. Debuffers are typically built with very little stamina and power,
		so Eyes is almost never going to reach front runners, especially the front who got Angling.
	</p>
	<p>
		The other category of skills to think about is other horses' uniques.
		<Skill skill={skills.sfv} />, <Skill skill={skills.uma2} />, and a number of others need tight positioning, requiring
		something like 2-4 or 3-4 in CM. The number of front runners in the match can dictate whether it's ever possible for those
		uniques to activate. This is the fundamental idea behind <a href="#triple-front">triple front</a> builds.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="skill-timing">Skill Timing</Sec>
	<p>Thought experiment.</p>
	<p>
		Picture two cars driving on a straight freeway, both at exactly 59 mph because I am American, adjacent lanes, keeping exactly
		side by side.
	</p>
	<p>
		The one on the right then drives 1 mph faster for three seconds, creating a slight gap between them before returning to the
		previous speed. They now maintain this new gap.
	</p>
	<p>
		There is a 65 mph speed limit sign. As each of the cars pass it, they accelerate at identical rates from 59 to 69 mph over a
		duration of exactly 10.2 seconds. Since the car on the right is slightly ahead from the speed skill it used, it reaches the
		speed limit sign first, so it starts accelerating first.
	</p>
	<p>
		Until the left car reaches the sign, the right car is building a speed advantage. Having a higher speed during the accel
		period, it continually increases the gap it had, until both of them have reached the new target speed.
	</p>
	<p>
		Now the left car drives 1 mph faster for three seconds. It closes the gap between them by the same distance that the right
		car's speed skill had done prior to the speed limit change. However, since the right car also added a distance advantage over
		the accel period, it remains slightly ahead of the left car.
	</p>
	<p>
		This thought experiment shows that speed skills are actually more valuable before late race than during it. Thus, front
		runners not having to worry about <a href="#pdm">PDM</a> is even more of an advantage. Everything they want to do for Angling positioning
		is already the best possible thing to do!
	</p>

	<Sec h={2} id="teams">CM Teams</Sec>
	<p>
		Obviously, CM is run in teams of three. While spamming the highest stats you can manage is a valid strategy that will get
		wins, building a team holistically will lead to higher win rates.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="pace-promo">Zero Front</Sec>
	<p>
		While this is a front runner guide, it's still valuable to think about the effects that zero front races have on other styles;
		which is to say, <i>pace promotion</i>.
	</p>
	<p>
		Whichever pace chaser (or late surger if there are also no paces, or end closer if it's all ends) happens to get in front of
		the pack by the first few dozen meters or so becomes the pace setter for the race. She runs as if she were a front runner with
		no position keep modes, but she retains the pace chaser coefficients for target speed and acceleration. For this reason, pace
		chasers tend to see their highest win rates in zero front races.
	</p>
	<p>
		It used to be possible to build pace chasers specifically for promotion, but the changes to position keep in the 1 Jul balance
		patch seem to have made this too random.
	</p>
	<p>
		If you want to run an end closer or late surger as your ace, but front runners may be rare and <s>Christmas Oguri Cap</s> a pace
		chaser is meta for the race (or COC is the meta end closer), preventing pace promotion could be a reason to run a solo front build
		instead.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="solo-front">Solo Front</Sec>
	<p>
		Because solo fronts essentially don't have access to their <a href="#front-modes">running modes</a>, they are unlikely to
		build enough of a lead over paces to win, even with Angling. (This changed a bit with the 1 Jul balance patch, as solo fronts
		now get an extra-long speed-up range, but it doesn't appear that they're maintaining much of a gap over paces in practice.)
	</p>
	<p>
		In particularly front-dominated metas, this is manageable, since you'll have opponent fronts to run against. When any other
		style is viable, which is always now that <Skill skill={skills.headon} mention /> is buffed, you'll have matches where your team's
		front runner is solo. The best choice for how to design a solo front depends on the rest of your team composition, because ultimately
		the choice you are faced with is whether to use a runaway blocker.
	</p>
	<p>
		The ideal runaway blocker has capped power, capped wit, and surface S, along with full gate and <a href="#lane-combo"
			>lane combos</a
		> where applicable, to build as much of an early race lead as possible. Her speed stat doesn't particularly matter, because her
		job is to block, not to win.
	</p>
	<p>
		Because runaways get so far ahead during the first half of the race, they essentially disable <a href="#pdm">pace-down mode</a
		> for everyone. That especially benefits pace chasers, who tend to lose access to pace-up mode with slower pacesetters, and it disfavors
		late surgers and end closers who normally don't keep up with their pace zones either way but now have to fight better paces.
	</p>
	<p>
		So, if you want to run a composition like one front and two end, it might serve you to choose against building a runaway
		blocker. This kind of composition probably should build the front runner for the purpose of winning against other front
		runners, and simply accept that solo front matches will be up to the other two instead. That leaves little room for a
		dedicated support like a debuffer.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="double-front">Double Front</Sec>
	<p>
		Doubling up on front runners is a build that intends to win with them. Which is to say, they should <i>both</i> be built to win
		mid race and proc Angling.
	</p>
	<p>
		There is still a difference between dual ace double front and double front with an ace and a backup. The ideal stat lines and
		skill lists will be the same between the two styles, but character choice will be different. In particular, dual ace wants
		both to have strong speed uniques &ndash; VBourbon or SMaru.
	</p>
	<p>
		With an ace and a backup, the ace is the one with the speed unique, and the other is a horse who gambles on winning mid race
		and turns that into a first place finish. Seiun Sky is the strongest such option; as an own unique rather than inherited,
		Angling gives so much perfectly timed acceleration that speed inherits give her more lengths than other accel skills.
	</p>
	<p>
		Since your two front runners are both meant to be winners, making your third horse a support type is likely to give the best
		overall win rate. This usually means a speed debuffer of whatever type is appropriate for the track. Adding another gambler is
		also effective.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="long-double-front">Long Double Front</Sec>
	<p>
		At long distances, double front has different implications.
		<Skill skill={skills.vcInherit} /> is the front runner win condition, and the front two horses both get it. With late race being
		before the final corner and hence extra move lane not having started, you can take advantage of <Skill skill={skills.nn} /> to turn
		the <i>second place</i> front runner into the winner.
	</p>
	<p>
		Building for second place to bunny with NN does not mean manipulating stats and skills to force one of the front runners into
		second. Both fronts need to be strong enough to be adjacent at late race start, and you have to beat other people's front
		runners, too. (Especially since VC, <Skill skill={skills.encroaching} mention />, and the stamina-burning <Skill
			skill={skills.claw}
			mention
		/> are currently the only consistent accels for long distance; front runners are common generally here.) So, double front for long
		is ultimately about the same as double front for other distances, just with different goals when choosing the legacy.
	</p>
	<p>
		If you're feeling adventurous, runaway is another consideration for double (and triple) front on long distances. Your ace
		(hopefully) still gets VC, but the runaway paces up the race. As mentioned in the <a href="#solo-front">solo front</a>
		section, this especially punishes end closers, who tend to be popular on long tracks because of <Skill
			skill={skills.spurt}
			mention
		/>. It also keeps your ace in <a href="#front-modes">overtake mode</a>, which is better than speed-up mode, for position keep.
	</p>
	<p>
		I haven't tried a long runaway, but I probably will next time it comes up, especially since I pulled for Palmer. My worry is
		that it will trade off fronts' consistency for meta hate, when I'd rather just be stronger.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="triple-front">Triple Front</Sec>
	<p>
		Triple front is pretty similar to running double front; the difference is that your support is also using the correct running
		style. That said, you don't really want a front debuffer; different types of support are better.
	</p>
	<p>
		One type of support that all front runners do automatically is helping to kill position-based pace chaser skills. Such skills
		have conditions that translate into needing to be in 3rd or 4th, or sometimes 2nd through 4th, to activate. When you're
		bringing three front runners, if anyone else brings a single other one, they're going to occupy 2-4 naturally. If there happen
		to be three others between front and pace, then even late/end win cons like <Skill skill={skills.beyondInherit} mention /> and <Skill
			skill={skills.pumpInherit}
			mention
		/> are dead.
	</p>
	<p>
		The fact that triple front tries to occupy positions 3-4 lets you do some very interesting team comps where you run pace
		chasers as front runners. E.g., I ran Taiki Shuttle as front in CM10 on dirt and Curren Chan as front in the CM9 sprint. This
		is not terribly consistent because they're readily equipped to get into first just as easily as third, but then they just get
		Angling instead and follow the normal front runner game plan. If you see people talking about a given pace chaser being
		especially strong for a CM, consider running them as a front runner in a triple front build instead.
	</p>
	<p>
		A more mechanical type of support is to build for <a href="#spot-struggle">spot struggle</a> and have her pull your less gutsy fronts
		forward into mid race. GW + TTL is especially important for this type of horse, and otherwise equivalent early race to your other
		fronts &ndash; everyone has lane combo if it's applicable, for example. Front S is also a major benefit, because it makes spot struggle
		last 10% longer.
	</p>
	<p>
		An SS support doesn't strictly need as much in the way of mid race skills, since her main job is to give the others overtake
		mode and then be passed. It's nonetheless a good idea to take those skills for less risk if your other fronts have a poor
		showing. In addition to the normal front win cons, it's potentially strong to take unconditional gambles like <Skill
			skill={skills.cornerConn}
			mention
		/>, <Skill skill={skills.burningPOW} mention />, and <Skill skill={skills.wwyou} mention />.
	</p>

	<div class="hidden" id="chariot"></div>
	<Sec h={3} id="rabbit">Rabbit</Sec>
	<p>
		A front runner build that I have seen but not attempted is the rabbit: a runaway with a strong early race but insufficient HP
		to spurt stays in front of one or two other front runners who have <Skill skill={skills.nsm} mention /><!-- ends with ! -->
	</p>
	<p>
		I saw a team using a rabbit in CM13 round 2 day 2; that team had an overall eleven wins at the time. Maybe their horses just
		weren't strong enough. I'm not sure. My opinion is that this build gives up the consistency of front runners to pursue a game
		plan that is hardly stronger when it does work.
	</p>
	<p>
		About two weeks ahead of CM15, Hakuraku's replay data is showing teams using a rabbit build, or even double runaways, with
		high win rates. I've watched a few dozen of those races and have found that the runaways are not functionally doing anything
		specific to runaways: they're being built without <Skill skill={skills.gw} mention /> and <Skill
			skill={skills.earlyLead}
			mention
		/>, so the normal fronts (typically UG1 or better) pass them during early race.
	</p>
	<p>
		If this build ever had an era, it was during the first pass of Unity Cup, when NSM was essentially free and there was no VC. I
		don't think it's viable now.
	</p>

	<Sec h={2} id="career">Career</Sec>
	<p>Most front runners enjoy easy careers thanks to strong kits and little chance to be blocked.</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="support-cards">Support Cards</Sec>
	<p>
		In MANT, it's relatively easy to get front-specific skills from rivals, so the support cards that are best for front runners
		have changed a bit.
	</p>
	<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
		<li>
			Maruzensky is the ultimate front runner speed card for a long time. She has hints for <Skill skill={skills.gw} mention /> and
			most front runner speed skills,
			<Skill skill={skills.topRunner} mention /> as her gold skill,
			<Skill skill={skills.earlyLead} mention /> on a non-chain event, and a massive 25% training effectiveness during summer.
		</li>
		<li>
			Ines Fujin gives <Skill skill={skills.speedEater} mention />, <Skill skill={skills.pto} mention />, and <Skill
				skill={skills.slipstream}
				mention
			/>. Her wit SR has high hint frequency, making it decent for auto mode.
		</li>
		<li>
			Marvelous Sunday, both power SSR and wit SR versions, give <Skill skill={skills.ramp} mention /> and <Skill
				skill={skills.thh}
				mention
			/> as hints. The SSR is one of the highest stat total cards in auto mode.
		</li>
		<li>
			Cards that give generic or distance-specific gold speed skills, especially mid race ones, are very valuable to front
			runners. Since <Skill skill={skills.professor} mention /> is strong, Kitasan Black is especially valuable. El Condor Pasa gives
			<Skill skill={skills.tunes} mention /> and Taiki Shuttle gives <Skill skill={skills.maven} mention />. That kind of deal.
		</li>
		<li>
			For parent runs, Smart Falcon SSR is mandatory. She gives guaranteed <Skill skill={skills.gw} mention /> in her chain, and her
			gold skill is <Skill skill={skills.centerStage} mention />, which you want for building a
			<a href="#lane-combo">lane combo</a> legacy. On ace runs, she is acceptable if you own her at MLB, but you'd rather get her skills
			from inheritance and use the card slot for a strong speed skill.
		</li>
		<li>
			Seiun Sky Stam is another good parent card for parents. Her chain starts with <Skill skill={skills.dd} mention /> and ends with
			<Skill skill={skills.escapeArtist} mention /> (albeit agemasen). She also carries a <Skill skill={skills.thh} mention /> hint.
			Unfortunately, between being a stamina card and not being Super Creek, she isn't viable for ace runs.
		</li>
		<li>Other parenting cards include Kawakami Princess speed and Hishi Akebono guts, for gold versions of lane combo skills.</li>
	</ul>

	<Sec h={3} id="career-skills">Taking Skills</Sec>
	<p>
		Contrary to advice I sometimes see, you can, in fact, take skills during career without Fast Learner. When you take skills
		mid-run without Fast Learner, and you happen to get it later, you effectively lose 10% of the SP you spent to that point.
		However, you also <i>prune</i> hints: taking the first level of a skill removes it from the pools for support card hint bubbles,
		GL shops, MANT rivals, UC bursts, and everything else except events that grant specific hints. Each front-specific skill you own
		improves your chance of getting skills you don't have hints for.
	</p>
	<p>
		<Skill skill={skills.earlyLead} /> is a snap take skill. The <i>only</i> time to sit on EL is when you happen to get the first
		+1 hint the turn before inspiration. (Even then, I'd probably still take it, since there's still a race to run.) Early Lead is
		one of the strongest skills in terms of lengths gained, it applies to all tracks and conditions, and
		<i>it saves late starts</i>, which are your only source of losses on most races after junior year. Moreover, it has a base
		cost of only 120 SP; even if you do get Fast Learner after taking it, your opportunity cost was 12 SP. If you prune EL and a
		hint lands on <Skill skill={skills.fastPaced} mention /> or <Skill skill={skills.leadersPride} mention /> instead, you gave up that
		potential 12 SP to save 18. It's incredibly good to take early.
	</p>
	<p>
		On exactly one of your three CM horses, <Skill skill={skills.loneWolf} /> is another snap take. Base cost of 60 SP for +40 speed,
		which can secure races early in career. Be extremely careful not to take it on multiple horses on a team. Save and quit from the
		career if you need to check. It's technically better to have it on two horses than zero, but it's tremendously better than that
		to have it on one.
	</p>
	<p>
		<Skill skill={skills.anglingInherit} /> is a strong consideration as a mid-career take. Inheritance events are more likely to activate
		green sparks than white sparks, so the risk of missing out on SP by taking it early is higher. However, Angling is an almost automatic
		win condition for career (outside of <a href="#3k">3Ks</a> and <a href="#niigata-1600">Niigata 1600</a>). Taking Angling early
		can save a lot of clocks, and it can rescue runs that don't get what is normally the minimum speed to win races before summer.
	</p>
	<p>
		<Skill skill={skills.straights} /> and <Skill skill={skills.corners} /> are strong and cheap. If you've taken Early Lead and Angling,
		they probably won't change the outcomes of any career races, but it's still reasonable to take the first level to prune. As a corollary,
		outside parent runs, you should have a specific distance in mind, so your distance straights/corners should usually be even quicker
		takes.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="niigata-1600">Niigata Junior Stakes</Sec>
	<p>
		Niigata Junior Stakes is the first non-sprint graded race in career, so if you're committed enough to do parent runs in MANT,
		it's very likely to be one you run. Howeevr, it's an oddly anti-front race. Late race starts a good bit past the final corner,
		which means front runners don't have any skills that can secure a win. (Unless you're inheriting Pasta? But VPP isn't really a
		good take mid-career.)
	</p>
	<p>
		An interesting consequence of the shape of Niigata 1600 is that duels can start before late race. Having that happen will give
		quite a good chunk of accel and speed for the entire spurt, which is usually enough to get the win. Because career races have
		more runners, duels are also pretty likely&mdash;except for fronts.
	</p>
	<p>If you do commit to the race, consider switching to pace.</p>
	<p>
		As a corollary, you also cannot win this race with B mile. A miraculous start in MANT can get to 350 speed for this race; a B
		mile runner with 350 speed is equivalent to an A mile runner with only 207 speed in career. See the <a
			href={resolve('/race/spurt')}>spurt calculator</a
		>. (This race is why I made it.)
	</p>

	<div id="jbc-sprint" class="hidden target:block">
		<h3>JBC Sprint</h3>
		<p>
			It used to be the case that Oi 1200 Dirt had a strange neither-straight-nor-corner segment at the start of late race so that
			Angling wouldn't activate. As of the 1 Jul update, the corner is now connected to the final straight, so there is no longer
			anything remarkable about this track.
		</p>
	</div>

	<Sec h={3} id="3k">Kikuka Sho &amp; Tenno Sho (Spring)</Sec>
	<p>
		The main concern with 3K races is always stamina. Front runners tend to be punished on long distances because they convert
		stamina to HP less efficiently than late or end, and because Spot Struggle drains an extra chunk.
	</p>
	<p>
		A stat line like x/400/x/400/600 should be enough to win Kikuka Sho. TSS seems to need something more like x/650/x/500/800 if
		you don't have any recoveries; I haven't tested much without them, because I don't like throwing away my runs.
	</p>
	<p>
		<Skill skill={skills.moxie} /> is the only front-specific recovery skill you can get from mechanics like GL shops or MANT rivals.
		It also is a guaranteed option in Bourbon Wit's first chain event. That makes it pretty often available for the 3Ks. However, if
		you end up overstam at the end of the run, buying Moxie can be as much as -162 SP, which is certainly not a trivial amount.
	</p>
	<p>
		An alternative option to buying a recovery is to switch to Late Surger for those races. I've won Kikuka Sho with circa 300
		stamina this way.
	</p>
	<p>
		In MANT, the stamina requirement is instantly much higher if the rival is Super Creek, Matikanetannhäuser, Mejiro McQueen, or
		Rice Shower. As rivals, those four will have very strong HP-oriented builds: on TSS, 650 stamina and at least one gold
		recovery, in addition to the recovery unique in Creek's and Mambo's cases. You will burn clocks rolling for them to fail wit
		checks unless you also have a gold.
	</p>
	<p>
		One last consideration for front runners on 3K races: Angling is a dead skill. If you're borderline on stamina, you'll have a
		hard time if you're on Long C.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="kitasan-black">Kitasan Black</Sec>
	<p>
		Kitasan Black doesn't get the easy careers that other front runners do. For one thing, if you're training Kitasan, you
		probably don't have Sei as a parent since their uniques don't mesh (except on Nakayama 2500). Kitasan's own unique is also
		very weak outside of long races and unable to even activate on some miles.
	</p>
	<p>Kitasan benefits from running as a Pace Chaser early on, just for the higher effective speed.</p>

	<Sec h={2} id="umas">Front Runners</Sec>
	<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
		<li>
			Valentine's Mihono Bourbon (VBourbon or Chocobon) is the easiest font runner to train because she has <Skill
				skill={skills.gw}
				mention
			/> built in, whereas most others have to get it from either inheritance or cards that aren't terribly strong. She is also the
			strongest front runner, because <Skill skill={skills.cacao} mention /> is full strength, mid race, extremely forgiving in activation,
			and even has a heal. And she has <Skill skill={skills.conc} mention /> and <Skill skill={skills.escapeArtist} mention /> built
			in, both strong distance-agnostic front runner skills with awkward sources otherwise. And she's a great parent for all the same
			reasons that her unique is strong (except that the heal becomes irrelevant).
		</li>
		<li>
			Summer Maruzensky (SMaru or KFC) is just shy of VBourbon in strength with her unique, <Skill skill={skills.kfc} mention />.
			It uses a heal to trigger instead of having a heal built in, but that means it sometimes has carryover potential. Using
			VBourbon as a parent for SMaru works as a trigger, too, which is especially good for shorter distances that don't want to
			spend SP on pure recoveries.
		</li>
		<li>
			Seiun Sky is the source of <Skill skill={skills.anglingInherit} mention /> and therefore the best horse for front runner parenting
			in the game, forever. As a runner, she is outshone by the former two and others who will come later, but she is an excellent choice
			for a <a href="#double-front">second front runner</a> in a team comp.
		</li>
		<li>
			Kitasan Black is the definitive front runner of long distance, both as a parent and as a competitor.
			<Skill skill={skills.blast} mention /> is the gold version of <Skill skill={skills.longStraights} mention />, which is
			extremely strong to have built in (especially noting that hints on Long Straights take 27 SP off the price of Blast).
		</li>
		<li>
			Aston Machan is an exceptionally strong front running sprinter who has TTL and GW built in. Once we get evolved skills, she
			will have an unusual TTL pink that increases its duration to 4s, which is enormously stronger than the usual TTL evo of
			increasing accel to 0.5.
		</li>
		<li>
			Silence Suzuka and Mejiro Palmer are currently the only runaways in the game. Both of them have uniques that are
			inconsistent normally but very consistent as runaways:
			<Skill skill={skills.view} mention /> and <Skill skill={skills.palmerUlt} mention />. Suzuka in particular is notable for
			having Conc built in, which along with Runaway makes her the highest scoring horse in Team Trials.
		</li>
	</ul>
	<p>
		Aside from these, there are some less obvious front runners, which is to say horses who function well even after fixing
		aptitudes.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="coc">Christmas Oguri Cap</Sec>
	<p>
		As is perhaps expected, Christmas Oguri Cap (COC) is very strong as a front runner on specific tracks. The front-specific heal
		is <Skill skill={skills.moxie} mention />, which activates at the very start of the first uphill. When that first uphill is at
		the start of late race, as in the case of Tokyo 1600 Dirt, COC is online as a front runner.
	</p>
	<p>
		I've been told COC is very hard to train as a front runner. Something about aptitudes. I don't have any variety of Oguri, but
		how hard could it be?
	</p>
	<p>
		Another rare manifestation of Front COC is as a third place horse in a <a href="#triple-front">triple front</a> build where <Skill
			skill={skills.uma2Inherit}
			mention
		/> is strong. I convinced Werseter, the Umadump guy, to try this for CM12 after he accidentally made an 8★ front Tachyon parent.
		He reported a 7% win rate for her. (But a much higher win rate overall &ndash; after all, he was using triple front.)
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="taiki-shuttle">Taiki Shuttle &amp; Curren Chan</Sec>
	<p>
		When building <a href="#triple-front">triple fronts</a>, you will naturally have a horse in third. This presents an
		opportunity to use a horse who is normally a pace chaser, with a strong unique that requires position 3 or behind, as a type
		of gambler.
	</p>
	<p>
		Taiki Shuttle and original Curren Chan are notable for having C and B front, respectively, which is quite reasonable to fix.
		Most other paces that could otherwise be called good are not so fortunate, or the things that make them good won't function as
		fronts e.g. due to requiring other nearby horses on the final straight.
	</p>

	<Sec h={2} id="legacies">Legacies</Sec>
	<p>
		Now that auto mode lets well-equipped players make SS horses at will, there are two broad approaches to building veterans for
		inheritance. The first is to take the cards that lead to SS, because that gives white sparks (only) a dramatically higher
		chance to be 2★ or 3★. The other option is to take cards for their skills regardless of their stats, enabling choices like
		Seiun Sky stamina and Silence Suzuka gacha SSR even at LB0, with the goal being to maximize the number of sparks in the short
		term by taking all the relevant gold skills possible.
	</p>
	<p>
		As a general strategy for choosing veterans to keep as parents, it's worth considering that the <i>only</i> quality of
		legacies that tends to improve naturally over time is white spark count. Star levels are always random (and depend on the
		qualities of the veteran herself), but each instance of a given white spark across a horse's legacy improves the chance to
		generate the same spark, if eligible. See
		<a href="https://hakuraku.moe/notes/spark_generation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hakuraku's analysis</a> for details.
	</p>

	<Sec h={3} id="sparks">Important Sparks</Sec>
	<p>
		Front runners are uniquely capable of making good use of wit sparks, since wit governs early- and mid-race speed, which is
		unusually important for them. Power sparks are typically still best, and stamina sparks can help to forgo a stamina card or
		two for 2400m+ builds. Fronts have a disproportionate representation of horses with high speed talent, which arguably makes
		speed sparks a bit less valuable.
	</p>
	<p>
		Pink sparks are more interesting, because &ndash; at least until other styles finish catching up on accels &ndash; they're
		less reliant on distance S to win. Building a high affinity legacy tree requires keeping some mile and long sparks on hand.
		Front sparks are better than other style sparks, especially if you do <a href="#triple-front">triple front</a> CM builds using
		<a href="#taiki-shuttle">fixed pace chasers</a>.
	</p>
	<p>Front runners are more reliant than other styles on getting certain skills from inspiration:</p>
	<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
		<li>
			Building a full <Skill skill={skills.gw} /> legacy is the first step to front runner training. Fronts without it are non-competitive
			even as supports. Aside from Maruzensky, who has ten skill hints, the cards that give it aren't great for ace builds. There is
			no gold version of it yet, so getting it from inheritance is truly ideal.
		</li>
		<li>
			<Skill skill={skills.pp} /> similarly doesn't come from good cards (since Sweep Tosho has fallen off). As a piece of
			<a href="#lane-combo">lane combo</a>, it isn't applicable to every race, but it's very strong when it is. The white skill is
			better than the gold skill, so it is another ideal inherit.
		</li>
		<li>
			<Skill skill={skills.ignitedWIT} /> is the stronger lane combo piece. The only sources of it are inheritance and Unity Cup; which
			is to say, the source of it is inheritance. When searching databases for borrows, looking for Ignited WIT is a shortcut for listing
			good front runner legacies, since it's only valuable to fronts.
		</li>
		<li>
			Almost all green skills are valuable to inherit at one point or another as GW triggers.
			<Skill skill={skills.right} /> and <Skill skill={skills.left} /> are particularly good; one of the two is always the best green
			available for a race.
			<Skill skill={skills.firm} /> is a bit less strong, and slightly superseded by the existence of Narita Top Road, but it applies
			to the majority of CM races. Season greens are great, but a bit narrow; distance greens are good. Weather greens are acceptable,
			but while guts is better on front runners than other styles, it isn't good.
			<Skill skill={skills.compSpirit} /> is good if you like to do <a href="#triple-front">triple front</a> builds, because it
			activates when there are four of the runner's style in CM.
			<Skill skill={skills.savvy} /> is slightly less valuable as an inherit, since it's more available from other sources.
		</li>
		<li>
			All generic speed skills that aren't strictly late race are good inherits.
			<Skill skill={skills.risky} /> is the best one by ratio of strength to difficulty to acquire; if you aren't forced to borrow Smart
			Falcon, you can get the gold version of this from Nakayama Festa Wit.
			<Skill skill={skills.thh} />, <Skill skill={skills.pto} />, <Skill skill={skills.ramp} />, and <Skill
				skill={skills.cornerAdept}
			/> are also strong, but available as hints or chain skills from some usable-to-good cards.
		</li>
		<li>
			Getting sparks for front-runner-specific skills like Straights, Corners, <Skill skill={skills.fastPaced} mention />, <Skill
				skill={skills.leadersPride}
				mention
			/>, and so on has become especially important now that the MANT era is behind us. GL shops can still give these, but it's
			usually better to buy stats instead.
			<Skill skill={skills.madDash} /> and <Skill skill={skills.fr} /> are new front runner skills that are especially strong and lean
			toward rare; the former has its gold version on Turbo Guts, but the latter has Kitasan Black's Triple Crown event as its only
			fixed source.
		</li>
	</ul>

	<Sec h={3} id="parents">Parents</Sec>
	<p>
		The primary consideration for choosing parents is the quality of the <a href="#win-cons">inherited uniques</a>. Front runners
		win with consistent inherited acceleration skills more than anyone else.
	</p>
	<p>
		Generally speaking, the horses that are <a href="#umas">good front runners</a> are good front runner parents as well. However, since
		everyone has zero base affinity with themselves, it's a good idea to mix in some other horses that are highly compatible with the
		main competitors, particularly to be grandparents.
	</p>
	<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
		<li>
			Seiun Sky, Kitasan Black, and El Condor Pasa (original) are the top tier parents, with the exact choice depending on the
			race.
		</li>
		<li>
			VBourbon is a good second inherit on tracks that don't require something else, for the same reasons that VBourbon herself is
			a top ace.
		</li>
		<li>
			Ines Fujin has a strong inherited unique for Tokyo turf (specifically; but all distances except 1400m), and she has
			excellent compatibility with Mihono Bourbon and Smart Falcon, along with good compatibility with other front runners
			broadly.
		</li>
		<li>
			Mayano Top Gun doesn't have an actual front runner variant (until Halloween Mayano in 2028 or so), but she acts like a front
			runner for affinity. In particular, Maya and Kitasan is among the highest base compatibility pairs currently in the game.
			(They were #1 prior to the 1 Jul balance patch, but now that spot goes to Tamamo Cross and Inari One.)
		</li>
		<li>
			TM Opera O is technically a pace chaser parent, but she still has good compatibility with most front runners, and her unique
			is strong for them.
		</li>
		<li>
			For <a href="#triple-front">triple front</a> teams on sprints and most miles, Nishino Flower's <Skill
				skill={skills.blossomInherit}
			/> can be especially strong. My CM18 team used a runaway Suzuka along with Chocobon and Taiki both with Angling + Blossom to reach
			an overall 80% win rate including first place finals.
		</li>
	</ul>
</Article>