horse/zenno/src/routes/doc/frbm/+page.svelte

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<article class="mx-auto max-w-4xl text-justify">
	<Sec h="1" id="top" class="text-center">Front Runner Black Magic</Sec>
	<p>
		Front runners are playing a fundamentally different game versus other running styles. Building them isn't too hard, and their
		careers tend to be easy, but some of the things you need (and don't need) to make a <i>really good</i> front runner are surprising.
	</p>
	<p>
		This document is advanced material. The target audience intends to win Champions Meet Group A Finals and either wants to use
		front runners to do it or wants to understand what front runners they need to beat. This is meant for players who are already
		strong at training: players who can take a target stat line and skill set and turn it into a horse. This is about what those
		stat lines and skill sets should be, along with <i>why</i>.
	</p>
	<Sec h="2" id="me">About Me</Sec>
	<p>
		About three weeks after Global launched, my friend told me to get a job, so I sent him a screenshot of me clicking the install
		button on Umamusume. Since then, I have been a mostly-F2P player, with the single exception of the First Anniversary SSR pick
		ticket. (I haven't even spent the accompanying paid carats.)
	</p>
	<p>
		I'm committed to running exclusively triple fronts for every Champions' Meet, starting since CM8 Sagittarius Cup (Arima
		Kinen). When I'm not training for CM, I'm usually making front runner parents, and was at one time the owner of the Seiun Sky
		with the most white sparks on global. I have a lot of experience training, running, and watching front runners.
	</p>
	<p>
		That said, most of the information here is ultimately my interpretations of <a
			href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?usp=sharing"
			target="_blank"
			rel="noopener noreferrer">KuromiAK's Race Mechanics doc</a
		>. Many of those interpretations are also informed by the exceptionally knowledgeable folks on the
		<a href="https://discord.gg/SyAVkbBSkx" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">GameTora Discord server</a>.
	</p>
	<p>
		I want to share the knowledge I've accrued about front runners, because teaching is my favorite thing. Definitely not just to
		rationalize running triple fronts for every CM even though it's not actually very good and most of my favorite horses are late
		surgers.
	</p>
	<Sec h="2" id="mechanics">Race Mechanics</Sec>
	<p>
		Very quick gloss of race fundamentals. Races are divided into four phases: early race, mid race, late race, and last spurt
		phase. They are also divided into twenty-four equal length sections. Early race is sections 1 to 4, mid race is sections 5 to
		16, late race is sections 17 to 20, and last spurt phase is sections 21 to 24. Spot Struggle can start between 150m and the
		end of section 5, and is forced to end at the start of section 9. Position Keep ends after section 10.
	</p>
	<p>
		The numeric value of acceleration depends on the Power stat, dueling, surface aptitude, uphills, race phase, running style. At
		the start of early race, horses accelerate from 3 m/s to the early race <i>base target speed</i>, which varies by race
		distance and running style. At the start of late race, if they have enough HP remaining for their last spurt, horses
		accelerate from the mid race base target speed to their spurt speed, which varies by speed stat, distance aptitude, race
		distance, running style, and guts stat, in decreasing order of effect. "Last spurt" and "last spurt phase" are different and
		unrelated things; the latter is only used in the condition for Homestretch Haste.
	</p>
	<p>
		Speed skills add a flat amount of target speed, generally +0.15 m/s for white skills, +0.25 m/s for double circle skills and
		some inherited uniques, +0.35 m/s for gold skills and most speed uniques, and +0.45 m/s for a handful of speed uniques. Accel
		skills similarly add a flat amount of acceleration, either +0.1 or +0.2 m/s² for white skills and inherited uniques, or +0.3
		or +0.4 m/s² for gold skills and uniques.
	</p>
	<p>
		Generally speaking, competitive races are won by the horse who gets the most acceleration at the start of late race. The
		consistency of front runner accel skills is what makes it a viable running style.
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="runaway">Runaway</Sec>
	<p>
		The skill <b>Runaway</b> converts front runners into the <i>Great Escape</i> running style. However, no player has ever uttered
		the words "Great Escape" when talking about Umamusume, presumably because Runaway is a much cooler name.
	</p>
	<p>
		Runaways are still front runners for most purposes, the main difference just being different base target speeds per phase.
		Other mechanics that are specific to front runners also apply to runaways.
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="spot-struggle">Spot Struggle</Sec>
	<p>
		For each of runaways and non-runaways, there is at most one spot struggle per race. Runaways will not spot struggle with
		non-runaways, nor vice-versa. When a spot struggle triggers, all front runnners of that type within range participate; I've
		had a horse join while in 6th.
	</p>
	<p>
		Spot struggle provides a target speed bonus that scales with the guts stat. If it isn't cut short, which will approximately
		never happen, its duration scales with the guts stat. Unlike skills, its duration <i>does not</i> scale with race distance.
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="position-keep">Position Keep</Sec>
	<p>Position Keep is the process by which pace chasers don't pass front runners in the mid race.</p>
	<p>
		During Position Keep, the frontmost front runner of each type uses <i>speed up mode</i> to try to stay at least 4.5m (a length
		is 2.5m) ahead of second place, and other front runners use <i>overtake mode</i> to try to become the frontmost. Both of these modes
		take wit checks to enter and apply a target speed bonus for their duration; overtake mode is slightly better than speed up mode.
	</p>
	<p>
		Lesser running styles instead have <i>pace up mode</i> and <i>pace down mode</i>. Whether horses enter these is based on their
		distance from the frontmost horse. Pace up also requires a wit check, but PDM doesn't – if a non-front horse gets too close to
		the frontmost runner in the first 41.67% of the race, they are guaranteed to switch into PDM, which converts distance into HP.
	</p>
	<p>
		Watch a MANT late surger with 1000+ power and wit in a solo practice match. When you see her advance forward early but then
		moonwalk for two seconds to the back of the pack, that's PDM.
	</p>
	<p>
		Converting distance into HP is quite a lot worse than just having enough HP. The fact that front runners don't have to worry
		about PDM is one of their major strengths. In particular, it means that early race speed skills always gain distance for front
		runners, which is not the case for the inferior styles.
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="skill-timing">Skill Timing</Sec>
	<p>Thought experiment.</p>
	<p>
		Picture two cars driving on a straight freeway, both at exactly 59 mph because I am American, adjacent lanes, keeping exactly
		side by side.
	</p>
	<p>
		The one on the right then drives 1 mph faster for three seconds, creating a slight gap between them before returning to the
		previous speed. They now maintain this new gap.
	</p>
	<p>
		There is a 65 mph speed limit sign. As each of the cars pass it, they accelerate at identical rates from 59 to 69 mph over a
		duration of exactly 10.2 seconds.
	</p>
	<p>
		Since the car on the right is slightly ahead from the speed skill it used, it reaches the speed limit sign first, so it starts
		accelerating first.
	</p>
	<p>
		Until the left car reaches the sign, the right car is building a speed advantage. Having a higher speed during the accel
		period, it continually increases the gap it had, until both of them have reached the new target speed.
	</p>
	<p>
		Now the left car drives 1 mph faster for three seconds. It closes the gap between them by the same distance that the right
		car's speed skill had done prior to the speed limit change.
	</p>
	<p>
		However, since the right car also added a distance advantage over the accel period, it remains slightly ahead of the left car.
	</p>
	<p>
		This thought experiment shows that speed skills are actually more valuable before late race than during it. Thus, front
		runners not having to worry about PDM is even more of an advantage.
	</p>
	<!-- TODO: skill stacking -->
	<Sec h="3" id="duels">Duels</Sec>
	<!-- corner timing; experiment with nsm suzuka -->
	<Sec h="2" id="stats">Stats</Sec>
	<Sec h="3" id="speed">Speed</Sec>
	<!-- speed matters less than for other styles; corollary: distance S matters less -->
	<Sec h="3" id="power">Power</Sec>
	<!-- uphills; surface S -->
	<Sec h="3" id="guts">Guts Actually Matters (Sometimes)</Sec>
	<!-- spot struggle (again?) -->
	<Sec h="3" id="wit">Wit</Sec>
	<!-- position keep; front S -->
	<Sec h="2" id="skills">Skills</Sec>
	<Sec h="3" id="win-cons">Win Conditions</Sec>
	<p>
		On all medium races, almost every mile, many sprints, and some longs, <b>Angling and Scheming</b> is the second strongest single
		skill currently in the game. Any time late race starts on (or, in the case of Nakayama 2500, very shortly before) a corner, Angling
		is how front runners win. This means that Seiun Sky is the most important horse to front runner trainers. Everything about training
		a front runner is for the sake of improving the odds of being the horse to trigger Angling – because only the horse in first gets
		it.
	</p>
	<p>
		Long races get a different primary win condition: <b>Victory Cheer!</b> from Kitasan Black. VC is more forgiving than Angling, activating
		for both first and second place, but it's also weaker.
	</p>
	<p>
		The sprints where Angling is dead can try to work with <b>Victoria por plancha ☆</b> (Pasta) and <b>Give Mummy a Hug ♡</b>
		(Mummy Creek) instead. These skills are also on the weaker side, so front running becomes more of a matter of gambling with skills
		like Turbo Sprint, Rushing Gale, and Unrestrained. The closest anyone has to not-gambling on such sprints is Nishino Flower's unique,
		though, and front runners are especially strong in sprints for <a href="#spot-struggle">other reasons</a>.
	</p>
	<p>
		If Angling is the second strongest skill, then the strongest is <b>No Stopping Me!</b>
		Unfortunately, in most races, it is generally not a front runner skill. Because only one horse gets Angling, they will pull away
		from whoever is in second, not giving a chance to activate NSM. For NSM to win on a front, the horse who got Angling has to not
		be Seiun Sky (since Sei's own Angling is equal to NSM in strength), and there has to be no gap in the front pack so that it can
		trigger. As I write this, I am 80 races into CM12 using a Silence Suzuka who has NSM, and it has been involved in exactly one win
		where she leapfrogged off (my) Sei to pass (my) VBourbon (who placed second). It was cool, but she would have been better off in
		the event if she hadn't had Yukino Wit in her deck.
	</p>
	<p>
		The above paragraph notwithstanding, NSM and even its white version, <b>Nimble Navigator</b>, are a decent choice for
		multi-front builds on VC races. Since the top two horses both get VC, and the accel from it is weaker, having an extra push
		for your second front is strong. VC maps also don't suffer from the final corner spread that makes NN/NSM hard to trigger on
		sprints and miles.
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="gate-skills">Gate Skills</Sec>
	<!-- gw, ttl, conc -->
	<Sec h="3" id="lane-combo">Lane Combo</Sec>
	<!-- dd, pp, ignited wit -->
	<Sec h="3" id="front-speed-skills">Speed Skills – Front Runner Exclusives</Sec>
	<!-- escape artist, front/distance corners/straights, leader's pride, speed eater (mile) -->
	<Sec h="3" id="generic-speed-skills">Speed Skills – Generic</Sec>
	<!-- thh, ramp up, pto, slipstream -->
	<Sec h="3" id="spurt-skills">Spurt Skills</Sec>
	<!-- barcarole, triumphant pulse, all i've got -->
	<Sec h="3" id="others-skills">Other Horses' Skills</Sec>
	<!-- all-seeing eyes; sfv, u=ma2, generally pos 3-4 skills -->
	<Sec h="2" id="teams">CM Teams</Sec>
	<Sec h="3" id="solo-front">Solo Front</Sec>
	<!-- front is not an ace; should probably be a runaway -->
	<Sec h="3" id="double-front">Double Front</Sec>
	<!-- ace front and backup -->
	<Sec h="3" id="triple-front">Triple Front</Sec>
	<!-- ace front, support, and backup; killing pos 3-4 skills -->
	<Sec h="2" id="umas">Front Runners</Sec>
	<Sec h="3" id="coc">Christmas Oguri Cap</Sec>
	<Sec h="3" id="taiki-shuttle">Taiki Shuttle &amp; Curren Chan</Sec>
	<Sec h="3" id="future-fronts">Future Important Fronts</Sec>
	<!-- rickey, kitasan white, halloween mayano -->
	<Sec h="3" id="future-runaways">Future Runaways</Sec>
	<Sec h="2" id="career">Career</Sec>
	<p>
		Most front runners enjoy easy careers thanks to strong kits and little chance to be blocked. This chapter details the minutia
		of career races, especially in MANT.
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="career-skills">Taking Skills</Sec>
	<p>
		Contrary to advice I sometimes see, you can, in fact, take skills during career without Fast Learner. When you take skills
		mid-run without Fast Learner, and you happen to get it later, you effectively lose 10% of the SP you spent to that point.
		However, you also <i>prune</i> hints: taking the first level of a skill removes it from the pools for support card hint bubbles,
		MANT rivals, UC bursts, and everything else except events that grant specific hints. Each front-specific skill you own improves
		your chance of getting skills you don't have hints for.
	</p>
	<p>
		<b>Early Lead</b> is a snap take skill. The <i>only</i> time to sit on Early Lead is when you happen to get the first +1 hint
		the turn before inspiration. (Even then, I'd probably still take it.) Early Lead is one of the strongest skills in terms of
		lengths gained, it applies to all tracks and conditions, and <i>it saves late starts</i>, which are your only source of losses
		on most races after junior year. Moreover, it has a base cost of only 120 SP; even if you do get Fast Learner after taking it,
		your opportunity cost was 12 SP. If you prune Early Lead and a hint lands on Fast-Paced or Leader's Pride instead, you gave up
		that potential 12 SP to save 18. It's incredibly good to take early.
	</p>
	<p>
		On parent runs, or exactly one of your three CM horses, <b>Lone Wolf</b> is another snap take. Base cost of 60 SP for +40 speed,
		which can secure a lot of races, especially early in career. Be extremely careful not to take it on multiple horses on a team. Save
		and quit from the career if you need to check. It's technically better to have it on two horses than zero, but it's tremendously
		better than that to have it on one.
	</p>
	<p>
		<b>Angling and Scheming</b> is a strong consideration as a mid-career take. Inheritance events are more likely to activate green
		sparks than white sparks, so the risk of missing out on SP by taking it early is higher. However, Angling is an almost automatic
		win condition for career (outside a few certain tracks). Taking Angling early can save a lot of clocks, and it can rescue runs that
		don't get what is normally the minimum speed to win races before summer.
	</p>
	<p>
		<b>Front Runner Savvy</b> is a skill you will pretty much always want at least the first level of. Wit is a strong stat for front
		runners, and Savvy is a guaranteed Groundwork trigger. It's also the second cheapest front-specific skill, after Dodging Danger.
		On parent runs, it might be worth sitting on it until the +2 or +3 hint, because taking the second level gives a slightly boosted
		chance to generate the spark, and hints save twice as much SP on the double circle.
	</p>
	<p>
		<b>Front Runner Straightaways</b> and <b>Corners</b> are strong and cheap. If you've taken Early Lead and Angling, they probably
		won't change the outcomes of any races, but it's still reasonable to take the first level to prune. As a corollary, outside parent
		runs, you should have a specific distance in mind, so your distance straights/corners should also be quick takes.
	</p>
	<p>
		If you get a +3 hint, <b>Focus</b> can act as a backup to Early Lead to prevent late starts that can kill your horse. Without a
		+3 hint, it's expensive for the magnitude of its effect. It's also not a great skill for an ace on its own, so it's pretty skippable
		in general if you aren't expecting Conc.
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="niigata-1600">Niigata Junior Stakes</Sec>
	<p>
		Niigata Junior Stakes is the first non-sprint graded race in career, which means it's very likely to be one you run. It's also
		an oddly anti-front race. Late race starts a good bit past the final corner, which means front runners don't have any skills
		that can secure a win. (Unless you're inheriting Pasta? But VPP isn't really a good take mid-career.)
	</p>
	<p>
		An interesting consequence of the shape of Niigata 1600 is that duels can start before late race. If you're doing a guts
		build, having that happen will give quite a good chunk of accel and speed for the entire spurt, which is usually enough to get
		the win. Duels are also pretty likely, because career races have more runners—as long as you're not a solo front.
	</p>
	<p>
		If you do commit to the race and find yourself as the only front runner, switch to pace. You cannot win this race as a solo
		front.
	</p>
	<p>
		As a corollary, you also cannot win this race with B mile. A miraculous start can get to 350 speed for this race; a B mile
		runner with 350 speed is equivalent to an A mile runner with only 207 speed in career. See the <a href={resolve('/spurt')}
			>spurt calculator</a
		>. (This race is why I made it.)
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="jbc-sprint">JBC Sprint</Sec>
	<p>
		An even more anti-front track is Ooi 1200 Dirt. This one is actively malicious. Visually, it looks like late race starts on a
		corner, but the portion before the stretch is a special <i>neither corner nor straight</i> property. That means Angling won't activate,
		and Pasta is delayed (though still within the accel period).
	</p>
	<p>
		Fortunately, JBC Sprint is after summer, which means you should be able to stat diff your opponents. If you are planning to
		win this race, e.g. for the +30 stat epithet for doing it twice, you may want to prioritize a bit of extra speed training, or
		take Front Straights/Corners. Don't be too surprised if you lose a clock or five to a Taiki Shuttle rival.
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="3k">Kikuka Sho &amp; Tenno Sho (Spring)</Sec>
	<!-- stam requirements; run as late; no angling -->
	<p>
		The main concern with 3K races is always stamina. Front runners are punished on long distances because they convert stamina to
		HP less efficiently than other styles.
	</p>
	<p>
		A stat line like x/450/x/500/600 should be enough for a guts/wit build to win Kikuka Sho against most rivals, possibly at the
		expense of a clock or two. TSS seems to need something more like x/700/x/700/700 if you don't have any recoveries; I haven't
		tested much without them, because I don't like throwing away my runs.
	</p>
	<p>
		Since approximately every front runner career will either be Valentine's Bourbon, whose unique skill has a recovery component,
		or have Bourbon Wit, who gives the option for a guaranteed Moxie hint on her first chain event, you'll almost always have a
		recovery available to take. Kitasan Black is the exception, since she has TTL built in. Regardless, if you end up overstam at
		the end of the run, buying Moxie can be -162 SP, which is certainly not a trivial amount.
	</p>
	<p>
		An alternative option to buying a recovery is to switch to Late Surger for those races. I've won Kikuka Sho with circa 300
		stamina this way. Personally, I've decided I prefer buying Moxie in MANT so that rivals have a chance to give a useful skill,
		but it's probably the wrong choice.
	</p>
	<p>
		All that said, the stamina requirement is instantly much higher if the rival is Super Creek, Mejiro McQueen, or Rice Shower.
		As rivals, those three will have very strong HP-oriented builds: on TSS, 650 stamina and at least one gold recovery. You will
		burn clocks rolling for them to fail wit checks unless you also have a gold.
	</p>
	<p>
		One last consideration for front runners on 3K races: Angling is a dead skill. If you're borderline on stamina, you'll have a
		hard time if you're on Long C.
	</p>
	<Sec h="3" id="kitasan-black">Kitasan Black</Sec>
	<p>
		Kitasan Black doesn't get the easy careers that other front runners do. For one thing, if you're training Kitasan, you
		probably don't have Sei as a parent since their uniques don't mesh (except on Nakayama 2500). Kitasan's own unique is also
		very weak outside of long races and unable to even activate on some miles, notably Niigata 1600. And for early races, notably
		Niigata 1600, you likely won't even have the opportunity to get Front Straights/Corners, especially since you don't need
		Bourbon Wit.
	</p>
	<p>
		Kitasan benefits a lot from running as a Pace Chaser early on, just for the higher effective speed. Rivals are best defeated
		with your intended style, but in career, winning is more important than front running.
	</p>
	<Sec h="2" id="history">Version History</Sec>
	<ul class="list-disc pl-4">
		<li>2026-04-27: First draft of intro and career sections</li>
	</ul>
</article>