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3 changed files with 290 additions and 122 deletions
+22 -22
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@@ -36,62 +36,62 @@
}
return l[0];
});
const activationClass = $derived(s.activations.length === 1 ? null : 'my-2 border rounded-md');
const activationClass = $derived(s.activations.length === 1 ? null : 'block my-2 border rounded-md');
const spanClass = $derived(mention ? 'italic' : 'font-bold');
</script>
{#snippet condition(disj: string[])}
{#each disj as conj, i (conj)}
<div class="font-mono text-sm">{conj}</div>
<span class="-mb-1 block font-mono text-sm">{conj}</span>
{#if i !== disj.length - 1}
<div class="text-xs italic">or</div>
<span class="text-xs italic">or</span>
{/if}
{/each}
{/snippet}
{#snippet abilities(abils: Ability[])}
{#each abils as a, i (i)}
<div class="text-sm">
<span class="block text-sm">
{ABILITY_TYPE_FORMAT[a.type](a.value)}
{ABILITY_SCALE_NAME[a.value_usage]}
{#if a.target && a.target !== Target.Self}
{TARGET_FORMAT[a.target](a.target_value)}
{/if}
</div>
</span>
{/each}
{/snippet}
<span class="group relative inline-block">
<div
<span class="group relative inline-block hyphens-none">
<span
class="skill-tip invisible absolute bottom-4 -left-1/2 flex w-80 flex-col rounded-lg border px-2 text-center opacity-0 shadow-lg transition-all group-hover:visible group-hover:bottom-6 group-hover:opacity-100"
role="tooltip"
>
<div class="border-b py-1">
<span class="block border-b py-1 hyphens-auto">
{s.description}
</div>
</span>
{#each s.activations as act, i (i)}
<div class={activationClass}>
<span class={activationClass}>
{#if act.precondition}
<div class="border-b py-1">
<div class="text-xs italic">Precondition</div>
<span class="block border-b py-1">
<span class="text-xs italic">Precondition</span>
{@render condition(splitCond(act.precondition))}
</div>
</span>
{/if}
<div class="border-b py-1">
<span class="block border-b py-1">
{@render condition(splitCond(act.condition))}
</div>
<div class="py-1">
</span>
<span class="block py-1">
{@render abilities(act.abilities)}
{#if act.duration != null && act.duration > 0}
<div class="text-sm">
<span class="block text-sm">
for {tenThousandths(act.duration)}s
{DURATION_SCALE_NAME[act.dur_scale]}
</div>
</span>
{/if}
</div>
</div>
</span>
</span>
{/each}
</div>
<span class={spanClass}>{s.name}</span>
</span>
<span class={[spanClass, 'cursor-pointer']}>{s.name}</span>
</span>
+1 -1
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@@ -27,5 +27,5 @@
<svelte:element this={tag} {id} class={className}>
<!-- eslint-disable svelte/no-navigation-without-resolve -->
<a {href}>{sign} {@render children()}</a>
<a {href}><span class="hidden md:inline">{sign}</span> {@render children()}</a>
</svelte:element>
+267 -99
View File
@@ -127,7 +127,7 @@
]);
</script>
<article class="mx-auto max-w-4xl text-justify">
<article class="mx-auto max-w-4xl text-justify hyphens-auto">
<Sec h="1" id="top" class="text-center">Front Runner Black Magic</Sec>
<p>
Front runners are playing a fundamentally different game versus other running styles. Building them isn't too hard, and their
@@ -364,25 +364,30 @@
<i>lane combo</i>.
</p>
<p>
Lane combo is only viable on tracks where early race ends before or at most very early into the first corner. Since PP and
Ignited WIT are <span class="font-mono">phase_random==0</span> skills, they can activate at the very end of late race. If there's
a corner there, and your horse is still on the outside from DD, you are now physically running a longer distance than those on the
inside. That can more than undo the gain from the lane combo itself.
Lane combo is best on tracks where early race ends before or at most very early into the first corner. PP and Ignited WIT can
activate at the very end of early race. If there's a corner there, and your horse is still on the outside from DD, you are now
physically running a longer distance than those on the inside. That can more than undo the gain from the lane combo itself.
</p>
<p>
The <a href={resolve('/mspeed')}>mechanical speed calculator</a> has an approximation of lane combo's benefit. A more precise
lane combo simulator <a href="https://lanecalc.hf-uma.net/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">exists</a>, but I am not
sufficiently confident in my Japanese to try to guide readers through it.
<!-- TODO(zeph): i could totally annotate a picture though -->
For similar reasons, DD <i>without</i> PP or Ignited WIT is likely to be a net negative on some tracks, especially Nakayama 2500,
Kyoto 3000, and Chukyo 1800 dirt. In sprints, it gives no benefit because it can't outlast early race accel. Otherwise, DD can be
an efficient pickup as a short burst of high speed to gain position.
</p>
<p>
The gold versions of lane combo skills, <Skill skill={201261} hint="gold dd" mention />, <Skill
The gold versions of lane combo skills &ndash; <Skill skill={201261} hint="gold dd" mention />, <Skill
skill={200451}
hint="gold pp"
mention
/>, <Skill skill={210051} hint="burning wit" mention />, are excellent to take on parents, but they make lane combo itself
less effective. They have stronger lane change movement boosts, which does not affect the forward speed boost and is likely to
make it last a shorter time, since the horse will return to the rail more quickly.
/>, <Skill skill={210051} hint="burning wit" mention /> &ndash; are excellent to take on parents, but they generally make lane combo
itself less effective. They have stronger lane change movement boosts, which does not affect the forward speed boost and is likely
to make it last a shorter time, since the horse will return to the rail more quickly.
</p>
<p>
The <a href={resolve('/mspeed')}>mechanical speed calculator</a> has an approximation of lane combo's benefit. A more precise
lane combo simulator exists at
<a href="https://lanecalc.hf-uma.net/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">危険回避シミュ</a>, but I am not sufficiently
confident in my Japanese to try to guide readers through it.
<!-- TODO(zeph): i could totally annotate a picture though, or find someone else's explanation -->
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="uphills">Uphills</Sec>
@@ -488,7 +493,7 @@
</p>
<p>
Inside the NO zone, if a horse is blocked in front, the only action available to her is to slow down. Speed skills are
generally wasted when they fire in the NO zone, unless they are either in the lead or still on the outside from DD or gate
generally wasted when they fire in the NO zone, unless the horse is either in the lead or still on the outside from DD or gate
position.
</p>
<p>
@@ -512,7 +517,8 @@
Every front runner should have it on every mile. Speed Eater technically has a gold version, <Skill
skill={201081}
hint="gold speed eater"
/>, but it's so wildly strong that JP still has no source of it even as a built-in skill.
/>, but Cygames apparently recognized that it must not ever be allowed to exist, because there's still no source of it on
JP.
</li>
<li>
<Skill skill={201611} hint="thh" /> is a full strength speed skill that is triggered by other skills, so it excels at stacking
@@ -683,6 +689,11 @@
and <Skill skill={910041} hint="kfc" mention /> are arguably more appropriate inherits than Angling, but the argument isn't strong
if you're still able to hit a good stat line on your runaway.
</p>
<p>
Runaway blockers come with some caveats. Because they're so far ahead during the first half of the race, they essentially
disable <a href="#pdm">pace-down mode</a> for everyone. That especially benefits pace chasers, who have more forgiving PDM limits
in the first place, and it disfavors late surgers and end closers who are less equipped to move forward during position keep.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="double-front">Double Front</Sec>
<p>
@@ -709,7 +720,7 @@
<p>
At long distances, double front has different implications.
<Skill skill={900681} hint="vc" /> is the front runner win condition, and the front two horses both get it. With late race being
before the final corner and hence extra move lane not having taken place, you can take advantage of <Skill
before the final corner and hence extra move lane not having started, you can take advantage of <Skill
skill={200492}
hint="nn"
/> to turn the <i>second place</i> front runner into the winner.
@@ -725,7 +736,20 @@
Given that NN is good, it's also worth considering the gold version, <Skill skill={200491} hint="nsm" /><!-- ends with ! -->
NSM is a better skill for the long double front build, but for now, the only way to get it while running MANT is from Yukino Bijin
Wit. That card's numbers are not great. It's still possible to get a good stat line using her, but it will take more careers to
get there than using Fine Motion, who has NN as a hint.
get there than to just get NN from Fine Motion.
</p>
<p>
If you're feeling adventurous, runaway is another consideration for double (and triple) front on long distances. Your ace
(hopefully) still gets VC, but the runaway paces up the race. As mentioned in the <a href="#solo-front">solo front</a>
section, this especially punishes end closers, who tend to be popular on long tracks because of <Skill
skill={200642}
hint="straight spurt"
mention
/>. It also keeps your ace in <a href="#front-modes">overtake mode</a>, which is better than speed-up mode, for position keep.
</p>
<p>
I haven't tried a long runaway, but I probably will next time it comes up, especially since I pulled for Palmer. My worry is
that it will trade off fronts' consistency for meta hate, when I'd rather just be stronger.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="triple-front">Triple Front</Sec>
@@ -803,14 +827,6 @@
have changed a bit.
</p>
<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
<li>
Marvelous Sunday, both power SSR and wit SR versions, give <Skill skill={200642} hint="ramp" mention /> and <Skill
skill={201611}
hint="thh"
mention
/> as hints. The SSR has 15% race bonus, while the SR has 10% race bonus and gives +3 hints. The numbers on both are otherwise
disappointing, but those elements alone are enough to justify using them.
</li>
<li>
Ines Fujin gives <Skill skill={201082} hint="speed eater" mention />, <Skill skill={201661} hint="pto" mention />, and <Skill
skill={201651}
@@ -820,8 +836,17 @@
a relatively new wit SR that is decently strong even at LB0, though still objectively beaten by Marv SR until MLB.
</li>
<li>
Cards that give generic or distance-specific gold speed skills are very valuable to front runners. Kitasan Black hasn't gone
away despite only 5% race bonus. El Condor Pasa gives <Skill skill={200721} hint="tunes" mention />.
Marvelous Sunday, both power SSR and wit SR versions, give <Skill skill={200462} hint="ramp" mention /> and <Skill
skill={201611}
hint="thh"
mention
/> as hints. The SSR has 15% race bonus, while the SR has 10% race bonus and gives +3 hints. The numbers on both are otherwise
disappointing, but those elements alone are enough to justify using them.
</li>
<li>
Cards that give generic or distance-specific gold speed skills, especially mid race ones, are very valuable to front
runners. Since <Skill skill={200331} hint="professor" mention /> is strong, Kitasan Black is still around despite only 5% race
bonus. El Condor Pasa gives <Skill skill={200721} hint="tunes" mention />.
</li>
<li>
For parent runs, Smart Falcon SSR is mandatory. She gives guaranteed <Skill skill={201601} hint="gw" mention /> in her chain,
@@ -830,12 +855,15 @@
from inheritance and use the card slot for a strong speed skill.
</li>
<li>
Seiun Sky SSR is another good parent run card. Her chain starts with <Skill skill={201262} hint="dd" mention /> and ends with
<Skill skill={200451} hint="escape artist" mention /> (albeit agemasen).
</li>
<li>
Other parent run cards include Kawakami Princess speed and Hishi Akebono guts, for gold versions of lane combo skills.
Seiun Sky SSR is another good parent card for parents. Her chain starts with <Skill skill={201262} hint="dd" mention /> and ends
with
<Skill skill={200541} hint="escape artist" mention /> (albeit agemasen). She also carries a <Skill
skill={201611}
hint="thh"
mention
/> hint. Unfortunately, between being a stamina card and not being Super Creek, she isn't viable for ace runs.
</li>
<li>Other parenting cards include Kawakami Princess speed and Hishi Akebono guts, for gold versions of lane combo skills.</li>
</ul>
<p>
A future sight advisory: Maruzensky's speed SSR is coming in early July. At this point, you should probably be saving all your
@@ -873,23 +901,17 @@
can save a lot of clocks, and it can rescue runs that don't get what is normally the minimum speed to win races before summer.
</p>
<p>
<Skill skill={201522} hint="savvy" /> is a skill you will pretty much always want at least the first level of. Wit is a strong stat
for front runners, and Savvy is a guaranteed Groundwork trigger. It's also the second cheapest front-specific skill, after Dodging
Danger. On parent runs, it could arguably be worth sitting on it until the +2 or +3 hint, because taking the second level gives
a slightly boosted chance to generate the spark, and hints save twice as much SP on the double circle.
I've had debate about this one, but I feel that <Skill skill={201522} hint="savvy" /> is a skill you will pretty much always want
at least the first level of. Wit is a strong stat for front runners, and Savvy is a guaranteed Groundwork trigger. It's also the
second cheapest front-specific skill, after Dodging Danger. On parent runs, it could arguably be worth sitting on it until the +2
or +3 hint, because taking the second level gives a slightly boosted chance to generate the spark, and hints save twice as much
SP on the double circle.
</p>
<p>
<Skill skill={201242} hint="front straights" /> and <Skill skill={201252} hint="front corners" /> are strong and cheap. If you've
taken Early Lead and Angling, they probably won't change the outcomes of any races, but it's still reasonable to take the first
level to prune. As a corollary, outside parent runs, you should have a specific distance in mind, so your distance straights/corners
should also be quick takes.
</p>
<p>
If you get a +3 hint from Kitasan and want to prune for Front Straights, Long Corners, Corner Adept, and DD, <Skill
skill={200432}
hint="focus"
/> can act as a backup to EL to prevent late starts that can kill your horse. Without a +3 hint, it's expensive for the magnitude
of its effect. It's also not a great skill for an ace on its own, so it's pretty skippable in general if you aren't expecting Conc.
should usually be even quicker takes.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="niigata-1600">Niigata Junior Stakes</Sec>
@@ -918,7 +940,7 @@
<p>
An even more anti-front track is Ooi 1200 Dirt. This one is actively malicious. Visually, it looks like late race starts on a
corner, but the portion before the stretch is a special <i>neither corner nor straight</i> property. That means Angling won't activate,
and Pasta is delayed (though still within the accel period).
and VPP is delayed (though still within the accel period).
</p>
<p>
Fortunately, JBC Sprint is after summer, which means you should be able to stat diff your opponents. If you are planning to
@@ -1048,52 +1070,162 @@
fronts e.g. due to requiring other nearby horses on the final straight.
</p>
<Sec h="2" id="stats">Stat Reference</Sec>
<p>
This chapter is an extremely brief reference of what front runner race mechanics each stat and aptitude applies to and how
they scale.
</p>
<p>There are four types of each stat.</p>
<ol class="mb-4 list-decimal pl-4">
<li>
<i>Raw stat</i> is the number displayed in the horse's info. Once stat caps are raised, any portion of raw stats above 1200 is
halved.
</li>
<li><i>Base stat</i> is raw stat modified by mood.</li>
<li>
<i>Adjusted stat</i> is base stat modified by surface conditions (for speed and power), track stat thresholds (for speed), and
style proficiency (for wit).
</li>
<li><i>Final stat</i> or just <i>stat</i> is adjusted stat plus the effects of green skills.</li>
</ol>
<p>
For example, a 1200 wit style S horse in great mood with the corresponding savvy skill at level 1 has 1200 raw wit, 1248 base
wit, 1372 adjusted wit, and 1412 (final) wit.
</p>
<p>
<i>Linear scaling</i> means that a given increase to a stat produces the same change in the mechanical value regardless of the
stat value.
<i>Root scaling</i> means that the mechanical value scales with the square root, 0.6 power, or 0.7 power of the stat, which
means the increase becomes smaller as the stat grows.
<i>Log scaling</i> means it scales with the logarithm of the stat; this is the fastest diminishing scaling type.
<i>Log-linear scaling</i> means it scales with the stat value multiplied by its logarithm.
<i>Negative scaling</i> of any type means that the mechanic instead decreases as the stat increases.
<i>Inverse scaling</i> means it scales with the multiplicative inverse of the stat, i.e. <span class="font-mono">1/x</span>.
Inverse scaling is negative scaling by definition, which means that negative inverse scaling (e.g. skill activation chance)
flips back to positive.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="stats-speed">Speed</Sec>
<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
<li>Spurt speed, root scaling</li>
<li>Late race speed when not spurting, root scaling</li>
</ul>
<Sec h="3" id="stats-stamina">Stamina</Sec>
<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
<li>HP, linear scaling</li>
</ul>
<Sec h="3" id="stats-power">Power</Sec>
<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
<li>Move lane modifier (<a href="#lane-combo">lane combo</a>), root scaling</li>
<li><a href="#uphills">Uphill target speed loss</a>, negative inverse scaling</li>
<li>Acceleration, root scaling</li>
<li>Lane change target speed (i.e. the horizontal rather than forward speed of changing lanes), linear</li>
</ul>
<Sec h="3" id="stats-guts">Guts</Sec>
<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
<li>Spurt speed, root scaling (roughly 5% of the effect of the speed stat)</li>
<li>Minimum speed, root scaling</li>
<li>HP consumption multiplier during last spurt, inverse root scaling</li>
<li>Target speed gain from spot struggle, root scaling</li>
<li>Duration of spot struggle, root scaling</li>
<li>Target speed gain from dueling, root scaling</li>
<li>Acceleration gain from dueling, root scaling</li>
</ul>
<Sec h="3" id="stats-wit">Wit</Sec>
<ul class="mb-4 list-disc pl-4">
<li><a href="#section-speed">Section speed</a>, log-linear scaling</li>
<li>Chance to enter <a href="#downhills">downhill accel mode</a>, linear scaling</li>
<li>Chance to accept a spurt speed and delay when not full spurting, linear scaling</li>
<li>Chance to activate skills, negative inverse scaling, base stat</li>
<li>Chance to enter <a href="#front-modes">speed-up and overtake modes</a> during position keep, log scaling</li>
<li>
For non-fronts, chance to enter pace-up mode, log scaling; but no effect on <a href="#pdm">pace-down mode</a>, which is
purely controlled by distance to the pacemaker
</li>
<li>
Chance to become rushed, log-squared scaling; the race mechanics doc says this is final wit, but Chun insists it's base
wit&mdash;can we get a ruling from Hakuraku?
</li>
</ul>
<Sec h="3" id="stats-surface">Surface (Turf/Dirt) Aptitude</Sec>
<p>Surface aptitude is a multiplier on acceleration. (Not the power stat, for the purposes of other mechanics using power.)</p>
<Sec h="3" id="stats-distance">Distance Aptitude</Sec>
<p>Distance aptitude is a multiplier on spurt speed. At distance E and below, it is also a multiplier on acceleration.</p>
<Sec h="3" id="stats-style">Style Aptitude</Sec>
<p>
Style aptitude directly multiplies wit in the computation of the wit stat, which means it affects everything in <a
href="#stats-wit">the wit section</a
> except for mechanics that use base wit.
</p>
<Sec h="2" id="cm">My CM Teams</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="cm13">CM13 &ndash; Taurus Cup (Tokyo Derby)</Sec>
<Sec h="3" id="cm14">CM14 &ndash; Gemini Cup (Yasuda Kinen, NHK Mile Cup, Victoria Mile)</Sec>
<p>
Maruzensky's unique is live as an order&le;5 for approximately everyone. Filling the ranks with front runners should be a
strong means to delay it for later positions, especially COC.
</p>
<p>
I even considered using Maruzensky herself, since she's a front runner. That line of thought led me to some interesting
experiments in Umalator. Redshift hits 25m into the start of late race, as a 0.4 accel on Maruzen and 0.2 inherited, just like
Angling. It turns out that that delay has a substantial impact. Sei with Redshift beats Maruzen with Angling by about 0.4
lengths.
</p>
<p>
The story doesn't end there, either. As it turns out, Redshift gains less than half a length for Sei. Ines Fujin's unique
(which has a strong version on Tokyo turf specifically) is worth about 0.2 lengths more! So, for Sei specifically, Ines Fujin
is the ideal inherit, not Maruzensky.
</p>
<p>
Realistically, my team comp probably should be Seiun Sky, VBourbon, and Maruzensky. However, we run our oshis, and Silence
Suzuka is my favorite front runner, so she's going in. The question then becomes whether to run VBourbon or Maruzen.
</p>
<p>
Maruzensky has the advantage of working even as far back as 5th place. However, what does that actually beat? She's a front
runner, so she can only outrun another front runner, and only if she has a significantly higher spurt speed than whoever got
Angling. That basically means she needs to be a guts horse hoping for duels, which in turn means probably both of Professor
and Escape Artist aren't happening. That's tough.
</p>
<p>
On the other hand, Maruzen isn't relying on a wit check for her big accel. She's also free to take VBourbon or Ines Fujin as
her non-Angling inherit, whereas VBourbon is forced into Sei and Maruzen parents. So, basically, what Maruzen would be trying
to beat is a VBourbon who hits both Angling and Redshift (&gt;80% chance), matching 0.4 accels but winning in spurt speed.
</p>
<p>
I'm not convinced that's good for my comp. I'd rather just be that VBourbon, having approximately every good front runner
skill built in. So, final team comp:
The ultimate lane combo map, and also the ultimate <a href="#no-zone">NO zone</a> map, and also the ultimate dueling map. Dueling
is so good that everyone needs guts builds, not just front runners. Kinda hoping that message doesn't get out, because duels generally
benefit other styles more than fronts. We get VPP instead, though, which gives similar accel to 1000 guts dueling.
</p>
<ol class="mb-4 list-decimal pl-4">
<li>Seiun Sky as a gambler, where the gamble is getting into first in midrace.</li>
<li>
VBourbon as an ace. 1200 wit is basically mandatory thanks to the requirement of double accels. Final Push won't be a bad
take as a gamble-y backup.
Suzuka!
<span class="inline-block">1109/563/935/1140/1200 A/A/A</span>. I might revisit this if I have time, but just this took four
days of grinding, and Suzuka likes guts builds.
</li>
<li>
Silence Suzuka as Silence Suzuka. If you prefer winning over running your favorites, this should be Maruzensky instead.
Wouldn't you just know it, VBourbon appears as an ace again. Not especially happy with it, but <span class="inline-block"
>1048/728/1113/1190/866 A/A/A</span
>. Imagine if 200 of that stam had been anything else...
</li>
<li>
Since I know that I don't have the cards for a guts build on Seiun Sky, I'm going to try it on Smart Falcon instead and see
how good this NO zone thing really is.
</li>
</ol>
<Sec h="3" id="cm13">CM13 &ndash; Taurus Cup (Tokyo Derby)</Sec>
<p>
Maruzensky's unique, <Skill skill={900041} hint="redshift" mention />, is live for approximately everyone. Filling the ranks
with front runners should be a strong means to delay it for later positions, especially COC.
</p>
<p>
Ended up running the same composition as in CM12, for the same reasons. This time, I knew better than to waste runs on guts
builds for Sei and VBourbon.
</p>
<ol class="mb-4 list-decimal pl-4">
<li>
VBourbon is the primary ace. It's a bit worrying to need to pass wit checks on both Angling and Red Shift, but eh, I'm sure
it'll be fine.
<span class="inline-block">1200/727/1103/619/1088 S/A/A</span> with lane combo.
</li>
<li>
Sei is the gambler. I forced a wacky build with my LB2 Top Road and got the highest roll conceivable, with double rainbows
or better on every turn of senior summer, fast learner, and approximately every desirable skill hint.
<span class="inline-block">1200/955/1200/540/1020 A/A/S</span> with lane combo. First UG that wasn't just letting Taiki Shuttle
guts build happen.
</li>
<li>
Suzuka is a spot struggle support. Got <span class="inline-block">1200/814/731/1034/1200 A/A/A</span> quickly; I could have kept
trying for higher, but I didn't. The low power is fine anyway, since the uphills are after position keep ends.
</li>
</ol>
<p>
Win rates after 40: I didn't actually record it anywhere, but I had a 3/3/3/5 day 1 and got five-win streaks on both VBourbon
and Sei, so pretty good. I want to say it was something like VBourbon 35%, Sei 25%, Suzuka 15%.
</p>
<p>
Win rates after 80: Sei 30%, VBourbon 25%, Suzuka 7.5%. Very confusing <span class="inline-block">3/5/1/1</span>
<span class="inline-block">1/1/4/4</span> records in round 2.
</p>
<p>Finals saw two COCs both get perfect ults and Radiant during accel. You can always simply lose to better luck.</p>
<Sec h="3" id="cm12">CM12 &ndash; Aries Cup (Satsuki Sho)</Sec>
<p>
One of COC's best tracks, because U=ma2 is at worst only slightly less good than 777 as a trigger. If there is any other front
@@ -1104,13 +1236,13 @@
Seiun Sky's Angling is a 0.4 accel that lasts for the entire accel period, better than COC's 0.3 that's only up for 2/3 of
it. I want her to be my ace in front, so capped wit, high power, strong spot struggles, huge mid-race skills. Didn't get a
guts build to come together after three weeks of attempts, so switched to a standard speed/power/wit build and got a high
roll on the first try. 1181/786/1185/474/1185 A/A/S.
roll on the first try. <span class="inline-block">1181/786/1185/474/1185 A/A/S</span>.
</li>
<li>
VBourbon is a horse that exists. She can beat other people's front runners, so great as a backup. Ideally she lets Sei in
front, but it's better to let this happen naturally off the lack of TTL than to force low stats. Second attempt got charming
and fast learner for free, medium S, and manageable stats. Skill hints were a bit sparse, but not worth rolling more.
1164/662/1010/599/1167 A/S/A.
<span class="inline-block">1164/662/1010/599/1167 A/S/A</span>.
</li>
<li>
Silence Suzuka is my favorite front runner, so I will run her. Her primary task is to be in third or fourth so COC can't be,
@@ -1118,7 +1250,7 @@
which needs 1200 power and wit but no other stats matter, or I could experiment with something wacky like NSM into duels.
The latter sounds more fun, even if it is obviously bad. First attempt didn't get aptitudes but did get Lone Wolf to disable
it for everyone else and surprisingly decent stats, which is good enough for me; her job isn't to win anyway.
<!-- TODO: stat line -->
<span class="inline-block">1200/623/1042/910/1165 A/A/A</span>.
</li>
</ol>
<p>Win rates after 40: VBourbon 35%, Sei 17.5%, Suzuka 15%. Not quite executing the plan, but I'll take the wins.</p>
@@ -1126,19 +1258,20 @@
Win rates after 80: VBourbon 30%, Sei 22.5%, Suzuka 12.5%. I believe this is my best round 2 performance ever. I lose more to
other fronts than to COC. "Most dominant racing horse for a year" continues to get trounced by the wacky triple front build.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="cm11">CM11 &ndash; Pisces Cup (Hanshin 3200 Heavy Rain)</Sec>
<p>N.B. This CM was before I started writing this document, so henceforth, there is much less info.</p>
<p>Late race starts on the back stretch, which means the end closers are out to play.</p>
<ol class="mb-4 list-decimal pl-4">
<li>
Kitasan Black is a snap take. Her unique is the only reliable accel outside of Straightaway Spurt, and it's quite a lot
better. 1200/1200/816/777/742 A/S/A.
better. <span class="inline-block">1200/1200/816/777/742 A/S/A</span>.
</li>
<li>
VBourbon's unique has a built-in recovery, which makes her the perfect choice as the survivor if stamina debuffers show up.
<!-- TODO: stat line -->
<span class="inline-block">1200/902/1022/704/816 A/S/A</span>.
</li>
<li>Silence Suzuka is coming. 1200/1145/653/608/1000 A/A/A.</li>
<li>Silence Suzuka is coming. <span class="inline-block">1200/1145/653/608/1000 A/A/A.</span></li>
</ol>
<p>
I floundered on parenting and ended up with not enough time to make runners. Suzuka had more wit than Kitasan could handle, so
@@ -1146,6 +1279,7 @@
</p>
<p>Win rates after 80: VBourbon 31.25%, Kitasan 21.25%, Suzuka 2.5%.</p>
<p>Extremely unlucky finals gave me third place for the first time ever.</p>
<Sec h="3" id="cm10">CM10 &ndash; Aquarius Cup (February Stakes)</Sec>
<p>
Everyone is terrified of Taiki Shuttle, who has a 3-4 ult. Triple fronts would like to have a word. It's a dirt track, but
@@ -1155,29 +1289,63 @@
<li>
Smart Falcon is the obvious choice, being the only actual dirt front runner to exist. Her unique isn't terribly strong for
this track, but her gold skills are &ndash; Trending makes it extremely difficult for others to overtake her.
1200/467/920/410/930 A/S/A.
<span class="inline-block">1200/467/920/410/930 A/S/A</span>.
</li>
<li>
Silence Suzuka in runaway mode will make positioning much easier. I don't have to think about Unrestrained on my other
horses because they won't be able to get in position for it anyway. Other Suzukas will be rare because she has G dirt and
people don't realize distance aptitude hardly matters for runaways. 1200/674/820/470/774 B/A/A.
people don't realize distance aptitude hardly matters for runaways. <span class="inline-block"
>1200/674/820/470/774 B/A/A</span
>.
</li>
<li>
Taiki Shuttle is a front runner now. She has B dirt and C front at base. Very easy to fix. Falco's mid-race is probably
stronger than Taiki's between her unique and Trending, so Taiki should often be in position for her ult in this build.
<!-- TODO: stat line -->
<span class="inline-block">1200/447/825/423/1195 A/A/A</span>.
</li>
</ol>
<p>
This is probably the strongest gameplan I've been able to use, but I failed to execute it properly. In particular, this was
the CM that taught me through experience how important mid race speed skills are for front runners. Final win rate was a bit
over 50%, including my first ever five win round 2 entry. Insane luck with Unrestrained at the same time as Angling made
Suzuka the champion of the Aquarius Cup.
over 50%. Insane luck with Unrestrained at the same time as Angling made Suzuka the champion of the Aquarius Cup.
</p>
<Sec h="3" id="cm9">CM9 &ndash; Capricorn Cup (Takamatsunomiya Kinen)</Sec>
<p>
A race with no Angling, and also with the largest proportion of downhill in any race. If you build wit, you literally cannot
finish a career without enough stamina for a full spurt.
</p>
<p>As a sprint, this is also where spot struggle shines. Time for Unity Cup guts builds.</p>
<p>
I forgot that <Skill skill={200551} hint="unrestrained" mention /> requires being in first place, so I thought it would be reasonable
to base my team around gambling on it. That turned out not to be a great decision.
</p>
<ol class="mb-4 list-decimal pl-4">
<li>
Silence Suzuka has Unrestrained built in, and she's my favorite front runner. Welcome to the team.
<span class="inline-block">1013/289/790/1177/1008 A/A/S</span>. Absolutely nailed the target stat line. We didn't even know
yet that spot struggle scales with front aptitude, but I got that, too.
</li>
<li>
Smart Falcon has an accel ult that can fire on the 1m portion of mid race stretch before the start of late race. This
requires her not getting into second place before the corner, and then overtaking during it. Fixing the aptitudes is a bit
tough with the parents I have, but it's doable.
<span class="inline-block">1155/373/930/388/1072 A/S/S</span>. I could do better on the stat line and the skills, but I'm
never going to see those aptitudes again.
</li>
<li>
Everyone is afraid of Curren Chan's pace chaser nonsense, so I'll use her as a front runner instead.
<span class="inline-block">1055/390/858/1098/780 S/A/A</span>.
</li>
</ol>
<p>
The plan worked exactly as I hoped, but what the plan lacked was <Skill skill={900141} hint="vpp" mention />. While I was
suppressing it on other teams' front runners with my outstanding mid race, they were also gambling on <Skill
skill={200651}
hint="gale"
mention
/> and <Skill skill={200371} hint="turbo sprint" mention />, and I didn't have enough accel to beat them. I found a mention in
my chat history that, as of round 2 day 1, I had a 78% top two rate with a 32% win rate. Lessons learned. Still managed to get
2nd in the finals, and also my first ever group A round 2 sweep.
</p>
<Sec h="2" id="history">Version History</Sec>
<ul class="list-disc pl-4">
<li>2026-05-03: CM13 planning.</li>
<li>2026-04-27: First draft of mechanics section, had the thought to add my CM plans and results.</li>
<li>2026-04-27: First draft of intro and career sections</li>
</ul>
</article>