zenno: section speed does not use base wit

Per analysis by Aya, only final wit is used for section speed.

Fixes #40.

zenno/src/lib/race.ts

@@ -504,14 +504,12 @@ export function baseTargetSpeed(
 /**
  * Calculate the range of section speed values for a horse in early or mid race.
  * @param raceLen Length of the race in meters
- * @param baseWit Base wit, after mood but before other modifiers
  * @param witStat Final wit stat, including strategy proficiency and skills
  * @param style Horse's running style
  * @param phase Phase of the current section
  */
 export function sectionSpeed(
 	raceLen: number,
-	baseWit: number,
 	witStat: number,
 	style: RunningStyle,
 	phase: Exclude<Phase, Phase.LateRace>,
@@ -520,7 +518,6 @@ export function sectionSpeed(
  * Calculate the range of section speed values for a horse not spurting during late race.
  * @param raceLen Length of the race in meters
  * @param speedStat Final speed stat
- * @param baseWit Base wit, after mood but before other modifiers
  * @param witStat Final wit stat, including strategy proficiency and skills
  * @param style Horse's running style
  * @param distance Hores's distance proficiency aptitude
@@ -529,7 +526,6 @@ export function sectionSpeed(
 export function sectionSpeed(
 	raceLen: number,
 	speedStat: number,
-	baseWit: number,
 	witStat: number,
 	style: RunningStyle,
 	distance: AptitudeLevel,
@@ -537,16 +533,14 @@ export function sectionSpeed(
 ): [number, number];
 export function sectionSpeed(
 	raceLen: number,
-	speedStatOrBaseWit: number,
-	baseWitOrWitStat: number,
+	speedStatOrWitStat: number,
 	witStatOrStyle: number | RunningStyle,
 	styleOrPhase: RunningStyle | Phase,
 	distance?: AptitudeLevel,
 	lateRace?: Phase.LateRace,
 ): [number, number] {
-	const speedStat = lateRace !== undefined ? speedStatOrBaseWit : 0;
-	const baseWit = lateRace !== undefined ? baseWitOrWitStat : speedStatOrBaseWit;
-	const witStat = lateRace !== undefined ? witStatOrStyle : baseWitOrWitStat;
+	const speedStat = lateRace !== undefined ? speedStatOrWitStat : 0;
+	const witStat = lateRace !== undefined ? witStatOrStyle : speedStatOrWitStat;
 	const style = lateRace !== undefined ? (styleOrPhase as RunningStyle) : (witStatOrStyle as RunningStyle);
 	const phase = lateRace !== undefined ? lateRace : (styleOrPhase as Phase);
 	const base = baseSpeed(raceLen);
@@ -555,7 +549,7 @@ export function sectionSpeed(
 		phase === Phase.LateRace
 			? (math.sqrt(500 * speedStat) as number) * distanceProficiencyMod[distance ?? AptitudeLevel.A] * 0.002
 			: 0;
-	const u = (witStat / 550000) * math.log10(baseWit * 0.1);
+	const u = (witStat / 550000) * math.log10(witStat * 0.1);
 	const l = u - 0.0065;
 	return [baseTarget + late + base * l, baseTarget + late + base * u];
 }

zenno/src/routes/doc/frbm/+page.svelte

@@ -123,7 +123,7 @@
 
 	const uphillSlowPow = 800;
 	const uphillFastPow = 1200;
-	const uphillBaseSpeed = mean2(sectionSpeed(2500, 1200, 1200, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.MidRace));
+	const uphillBaseSpeed = mean2(sectionSpeed(2500, 1200, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.MidRace));
 	const uphillSlopes = [
 		{ per: 2, len: 110 },
 		{ per: 1.5, len: 200 },
@@ -137,13 +137,13 @@
 
 	const secSpeedS = 1200;
 	const secSpeedA = 1000;
-	const secSpeedExample = $derived(sectionSpeed(raceLen, secSpeedS, secSpeedS * 1.1, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.EarlyRace));
+	const secSpeedExample = $derived(sectionSpeed(raceLen, secSpeedS * 1.1, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.EarlyRace));
 	const secSpeedInfo = $derived(secSpeedExample.map((x) => x.toFixed(2)).join(' to '));
 	const secSpeedPassTime = $derived.by(() => {
-		const sSecSpeed = mean2(sectionSpeed(raceLen, secSpeedS, secSpeedS * 1.1, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.MidRace));
+		const sSecSpeed = mean2(sectionSpeed(raceLen, secSpeedS * 1.1, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.MidRace));
 		const sMode = frontModeEnterChance(secSpeedS * 1.1);
 		const sOvertakeSpeed = modemean(sSecSpeed, 1.05, sMode);
-		const aSecSpeed = mean2(sectionSpeed(raceLen, secSpeedA, secSpeedA, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.MidRace));
+		const aSecSpeed = mean2(sectionSpeed(raceLen, secSpeedA, RunningStyle.FrontRunner, Phase.MidRace));
 		const aMode = frontModeEnterChance(secSpeedA);
 		const aSpeedupSpeed = modemean(aSecSpeed, 1.04, aMode);
 		const r = 2 / (sOvertakeSpeed - aSpeedupSpeed);
@@ -183,35 +183,35 @@
 	const secSpeedSeries: Array<ComputedAreas | null> = $derived([
 		{
 			label: 'Early Race',
-			y1: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[0],
-			y2: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[1],
+			y1: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[0],
+			y2: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[1],
 		},
 		{
 			label: 'Mid Race',
-			y1: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[0],
-			y2: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1],
+			y1: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[0],
+			y2: (x) => sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1],
 		},
 		secIsFront
 			? {
 					label: 'Early Race + Mean Speed-Up Mode',
-					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
-					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
+					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
+					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
 				}
 			: {
 					label: 'Early Race + Mean Pace-Up Mode',
-					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
-					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
+					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
+					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
 				},
 		secIsFront
 			? {
 					label: 'Mid Race + Mean Speed-Up Mode',
-					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
-					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
+					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
+					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, frontModeEnterChance(x)),
 				}
 			: {
 					label: 'Mid Race + Mean Pace-Up Mode',
-					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
-					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
+					y1: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
+					y2: (x) => modemean(sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, secSpeedStyle, Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, paceUpEnterChance(x)),
 				},
 	]);
 	const fcSeries: ComputedSeries[] = $derived([
@@ -649,10 +649,7 @@
 		ref="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15VzW9W2tXBBTibBRbZ8IVpW6HaMX8H0RP03kq6Az7Xg/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.xdha40q2176g"
 		>Section Speed</Sec
 	>
-	<p>
-		Each section, each horse gets a random modifier to target speed. The modifier's range is determined by the wit stat.
-		(Curiously, the calculation uses both wit as modified by style proficiency and green skills as well as base wit.)
-	</p>
+	<p>Each section, each horse gets a random modifier to target speed. The modifier's range is determined by the wit stat.</p>
 	<div class="mb-24 h-60 w-full md:mb-20 md:h-96">
 		<StatChart
 			class="mx-auto mb-12 h-full w-full max-w-3xl md:mb-10"

zenno/src/routes/doc/race/+page.svelte

@@ -86,37 +86,35 @@
 	const secSpeed: Array<ComputedAreas | null> = $derived([
 		{
 			label: 'Early Race',
-			y1: (x) => race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[0],
-			y2: (x) => race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[1],
+			y1: (x) => race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[0],
+			y2: (x) => race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[1],
 		},
 		{
 			label: 'Mid Race',
-			y1: (x) => race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[0],
-			y2: (x) => race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[1],
+			y1: (x) => race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[0],
+			y2: (x) => race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[1],
 		},
 		styleIsFront
 			? {
 					label: 'Early Race + Mean Speed-Up Mode',
-					y1: (x) =>
-						modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, race.frontModeEnterChance(x)),
-					y2: (x) =>
-						modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, race.frontModeEnterChance(x)),
+					y1: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, race.frontModeEnterChance(x)),
+					y2: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, race.frontModeEnterChance(x)),
 				}
 			: {
 					label: 'Early Race + Mean Pace-Up Mode',
-					y1: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, race.paceUpEnterChance(x)),
-					y2: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, race.paceUpEnterChance(x)),
+					y1: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[0], 1.04, race.paceUpEnterChance(x)),
+					y2: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace)[1], 1.04, race.paceUpEnterChance(x)),
 				},
 		styleIsFront
 			? {
 					label: 'Mid Race + Mean Speed-Up Mode',
-					y1: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, race.frontModeEnterChance(x)),
-					y2: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, race.frontModeEnterChance(x)),
+					y1: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, race.frontModeEnterChance(x)),
+					y2: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, race.frontModeEnterChance(x)),
 				}
 			: {
 					label: 'Mid Race + Mean Pace-Up Mode',
-					y1: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, race.paceUpEnterChance(x)),
-					y2: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, race.paceUpEnterChance(x)),
+					y1: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[0], 1.04, race.paceUpEnterChance(x)),
+					y2: (x) => modemean(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, x, style, race.Phase.MidRace)[1], 1.04, race.paceUpEnterChance(x)),
 				},
 	]);
 	const downhill: ComputedSeries[] = [

zenno/src/routes/race/carryover/+page.svelte

@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@
 	const damCarry = $derived(allowDAM && slope < 0 ? race.downhillAccelMod(slope) : 0);
 	const carry = $derived(skillCarry + damCarry);
 	const midSpeed = $derived.by(() => {
-		const s = race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, baseWit, wit, style, race.Phase.MidRace) satisfies [number, number];
+		const s = race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, wit, style, race.Phase.MidRace) satisfies [number, number];
 		const u = slope > 0 ? race.uphillMod(power, slope) : 0;
 		return [s[0] + u, s[1] + u] as const;
 	});

zenno/src/routes/race/gate/+page.svelte

@@ -83,7 +83,7 @@
 		}
 		return [0, 0];
 	});
-	const earlyTarget = $derived(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, baseWit, wit, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace));
+	const earlyTarget = $derived(race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, wit, style, race.Phase.EarlyRace));
 	const speeds: [number, number] = $derived([earlyTarget[0] + hillMod[0], earlyTarget[1] + hillMod[1]]);
 
 	const startInstant: accel.Instant = { t: 0, x: 0, v: 3 };

zenno/src/routes/race/stam/+page.svelte

@@ -96,14 +96,8 @@
 
 	const distType = $derived(race.distance(raceLen));
 	const phaseSpeed = $derived({
-		[race.Phase.EarlyRace]: race.sectionSpeed(
-			raceLen,
-			baseStats[race.Stat.Wit],
-			stats[race.Stat.Wit],
-			style,
-			race.Phase.EarlyRace,
-		),
-		[race.Phase.MidRace]: race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, baseStats[race.Stat.Wit], stats[race.Stat.Wit], style, race.Phase.MidRace),
+		[race.Phase.EarlyRace]: race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, stats[race.Stat.Wit], style, race.Phase.EarlyRace),
+		[race.Phase.MidRace]: race.sectionSpeed(raceLen, stats[race.Stat.Wit], style, race.Phase.MidRace),
 		[race.Phase.LateRace]: [
 			race.spurtSpeed(stats[race.Stat.Speed], stats[race.Stat.Guts], style, distanceApt, raceLen),
 			race.spurtSpeed(stats[race.Stat.Speed], stats[race.Stat.Guts], style, distanceApt, raceLen),
@@ -130,7 +124,8 @@
 		}
 		return { mode: (mr * maxHP) / 10000, modePer: mp * 100, mean };
 	});
-	const effStam = $derived(race.effectiveStam(raceLen, style, maxHP + statistics.mode));
+	const debuffHP = $derived((maxHP * debuffCounts.reduce((a, s) => a + s.r * s.n, 0)) / 10000);
+	const effStam = $derived(race.effectiveStam(raceLen, style, maxHP + statistics.mode - debuffHP));
 
 	const sections = $derived.by(() => {
 		const r = course.splitSectionSlopes(raceLen, slopesRaw).map((s) => {
@@ -448,7 +443,21 @@
 </table>
 -->
 {#if skills.length != 0 || risky}
-	<div class="mx-auto h-96 max-w-5xl">
+	<div class="mx-auto h-96 max-w-3xl">
 		<HPChart {distribution} {maxHP} />
 	</div>
 {/if}
+<div class="mx-auto mt-12 w-full max-w-4xl border-t pt-4 md:mt-8">
+	<p>
+		Mode HP from Skills gives the most frequent single result of recoveries and debuffs, along with the probability of that
+		result.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		Effective Stamina gives the stamina stat which yields the same HP as the input configuration plus the mode HP from recovery
+		skills alone, ignoring debuffs. It can be considered the HP that removes wit checks from the equivalent HP pool.
+	</p>
+	<p>
+		As of now, this calculator does not handle recoveries that have no wit check, nor the HP effects of rushed, spot struggle, and
+		downhill running.
+	</p>
+</div>