zenno/doc/frbm: mechanics and cm13
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@@ -83,6 +83,12 @@
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Spot struggle provides a target speed bonus that scales with the guts stat. If it isn't cut short, which will approximately
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never happen, its duration scales with the guts stat. Unlike skills, its duration <i>does not</i> scale with race distance.
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</p>
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<p>
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Spot struggle also greatly increases HP consumption.
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For normal front runners, the rate is slightly less than Rushed.
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For runaways, it's more than double Rushed. (This is the reason people say you can't get enough stamina for runaways on Global.)
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Actually getting Rushed during spot struggle dramatically increases HP consumption, much more than just adding them together; red-light green-light pretty much guarantees that horse won't spurt.
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</p>
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<Sec h="3" id="position-keep">Position Keep</Sec>
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<p>Position Keep is the process by which pace chasers don't pass front runners in the mid race.</p>
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<p>
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@@ -137,9 +143,37 @@
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This thought experiment shows that speed skills are actually more valuable before late race than during it. Thus, front
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runners not having to worry about PDM is even more of an advantage.
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</p>
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<!-- TODO: skill stacking -->
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<Sec h="3" id="skill-stacking">Skill Stacking</Sec>
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<p>
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In a void, the fact that skill effects stack doesn't change the total distance you get from them.
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However, getting multiple to activate at the same time drastically improves a front runner's ability to overtake.
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</p>
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<p>
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The practical consequence of this is that <b>Tail Held High</b> and, for multi-front builds, <b>Ramp Up</b> are extremely good skills for front runners.
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THH has a long duration and will pretty much always trigger off another speed skill, pushing your horse far forward.
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Ramp activates upon overtake mid-race, which can turn a lucky order change into a full pass.
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</p>
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<Sec h="3" id="duels">Duels</Sec>
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<!-- corner timing; experiment with nsm suzuka -->
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<p>
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Aside from spot struggle, the other mechanic that tries to make guts a stat that matters is dueling.
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This requires two horses on the final straight to sustain a certain distance both along and across the track, and to be close in actual speed.
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There is some evidence that three horses might be able to enter a single duel, although I am not certain this is confirmed.
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</p>
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<p>
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Duels give a substantial bonus to target speed, a gold speed skill's worth at only 500 guts, for the entire duration of the final straight.
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(Also a bit of acceleration, but this rarely matters.)
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</p>
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<p>
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Unfortunately, winning front runners almost never get duels.
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After Angling, no one else will be nearly close enough to trigger; other fronts are left behind, and other styles are still catching up.
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On tracks like Tokyo 1600 where Angling is right before the final straight, the problem instead becomes width, since horses spread out on the final corner.
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</p>
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<p>
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For CM12 Aries Cup (Satsuki Sho), I used a guts/wit NSM Suzuka whose goal was to be in third place at late race start, trigger NSM to stick with the Angling user, and duel with high guts to finish out the race.
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This plan never materialized.
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I did get one win off the duel itself when it enabled Suzuka to pass back a pace chaser in the closest win I had in the whole event;
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but one win in eighty races is not a great record.
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</p>
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<Sec h="2" id="stats">Stats</Sec>
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<Sec h="3" id="speed">Speed</Sec>
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<!-- speed matters less than for other styles; corollary: distance S matters less -->
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@@ -290,7 +324,6 @@
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take Front Straights/Corners. Don't be too surprised if you lose a clock or five to a Taiki Shuttle rival.
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</p>
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<Sec h="3" id="3k">Kikuka Sho & Tenno Sho (Spring)</Sec>
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<!-- stam requirements; run as late; no angling -->
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<p>
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The main concern with 3K races is always stamina. Front runners are punished on long distances because they convert stamina to
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HP less efficiently than other styles.
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@@ -332,8 +365,164 @@
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Kitasan benefits a lot from running as a Pace Chaser early on, just for the higher effective speed. Rivals are best defeated
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with your intended style, but in career, winning is more important than front running.
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</p>
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<Sec h="2" id="cm">My CM Teams</Sec>
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<Sec h="3" id="cm13">CM13 – Taurus Cup (Tokyo Derby)</Sec>
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<p>
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Maruzensky's unique is live as an order≤5 for approximately everyone.
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Filling the ranks with front runners should be a strong means to delay it for later positions, especially COC.
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</p>
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<p>
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I even considered using Maruzensky herself, since she's a front runner.
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That line of thought led me to some interesting experiments in Umalator.
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Redshift hits 25m into the start of late race, as a 0.4 accel on Maruzen and 0.2 inherited, just like Angling.
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It turns out that that delay has a substantial impact.
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Sei with Redshift beats Maruzen with Angling by about 0.4 lengths.
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</p>
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<p>
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The story doesn't end there, either.
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As it turns out, Redshift gains less than half a length for Sei.
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Ines Fujin's unique (which has a strong version on Tokyo turf specifically) is worth about 0.2 lengths more!
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So, for Sei specifically, Ines Fujin is the ideal inherit, not Maruzensky.
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</p>
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<p>
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Realistically, my team comp probably should be Seiun Sky, VBourbon, and Maruzensky.
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However, we run our oshis, and Silence Suzuka is my favorite front runner, so she's going in.
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The question then becomes whether to run VBourbon or Maruzen.
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</p>
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<p>
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Maruzensky has the advantage of working even as far back as 5th place.
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However, what does that actually beat?
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She's a front runner, so she can only outrun another front runner, and only if she has a significantly higher spurt speed than whoever got Angling.
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That basically means she needs to be a guts horse hoping for duels, which in turn means probably both of Professor and Escape Artist aren't happening. That's tough.
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</p>
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<p>
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On the other hand, Maruzen isn't relying on a wit check for her big accel.
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She's also free to take VBourbon or Ines Fujin as her non-Angling inherit, whereas VBourbon is forced into Sei and Maruzen parents.
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So, basically, what Maruzen would be trying to beat is a VBourbon who hits both Angling and Redshift (>80% chance), matching 0.4 accels but winning in spurt speed.
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</p>
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<p>
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I'm not convinced that's good for my comp.
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I'd rather just be that VBourbon, having approximately every good front runner skill built in.
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So, final team comp:
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</p>
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<ol class="list-decimal pl-4 mb-4">
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<li>
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Seiun Sky as a gambler, where the gamble is getting into first in midrace.
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</li>
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<li>
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VBourbon as an ace.
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1200 wit is basically mandatory thanks to the requirement of double accels.
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Final Push won't be a bad take as a gamble-y backup.
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</li>
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<li>
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Silence Suzuka as Silence Suzuka.
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If you prefer winning over running your favorites, this should be Maruzensky instead.
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</li>
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</ol>
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<Sec h="3" id="cm12">CM12 – Aries Cup (Satsuki Sho)</Sec>
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<p>
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One of COC's best tracks, because U=ma2 is at worst only slightly less good than 777 as a trigger.
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If there is any other front runner, triple front pushes pace COC out of range for U=ma2, making her at best as reliable as the usual.
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</p>
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<ol class="list-decimal pl-4 mb-4">
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<li>
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Seiun Sky's Angling is a 0.4 accel that lasts for the entire accel period, better than COC's 0.3 that's only up for 2/3 of it.
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I want her to be my ace in front, so capped wit, high power, strong spot struggles, huge mid-race skills.
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Didn't get a guts build to come together after three weeks of attempts, so switched to a standard speed/power/wit build and got a high roll on the first try.
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1181/786/1185/474/1185 A/A/S.
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</li>
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<li>
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VBourbon is a horse that exists. She can beat other people's front runners, so great as a backup.
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Ideally she lets Sei in front, but it's better to let this happen naturally off the lack of TTL than to force low stats.
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Second attempt got charming and fast learner for free, medium S, and manageable stats. Skill hints were a bit sparse, but not worth rolling more.
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1164/662/1010/599/1167 A/S/A.
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</li>
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<li>
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Silence Suzuka is my favorite front runner, so I will run her.
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Her primary task is to be in third or fourth so COC can't be, so I don't need amazing stats.
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To maximize her effectiveness, there are two possible plans:
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I could make her a debuffer, which needs 1200 power and wit but no other stats matter,
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or I could experiment with something wacky like NSM into duels.
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The latter sounds more fun, even if it is obviously bad.
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First attempt didn't get aptitudes but did get Lone Wolf to disable it for everyone else and surprisingly decent stats, which is good enough for me;
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her job isn't to win anyway.
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<!-- TODO: stat line -->
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</li>
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</ol>
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<p>
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Win rates after 40: VBourbon 35%, Sei 17.5%, Suzuka 15%. Not quite executing the plan, but I'll take the wins.
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</p>
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<p>
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Win rates after 80: VBourbon 30%, Sei 22.5%, Suzuka 12.5%. I believe this is my best round 2 performance ever.
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I lose more to other fronts than to COC. "Most dominant racing horse for a year" continues to get trounced by the wacky triple front build.
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</p>
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<Sec h="3" id="cm11">CM11 – Pisces Cup (Hanshin 3200 Heavy Rain)</Sec>
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<p>
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N.B. This CM was before I started writing this document, so henceforth, there is much less info.
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</p>
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<p>
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Late race starts on the back stretch, which means the end closers are out to play.
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</p>
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<ol class="list-decimal pl-4 mb-4">
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<li>
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Kitasan Black is a snap take.
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Her unique is the only reliable accel outside of Straightaway Spurt, and it's quite a lot better.
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1200/1200/816/777/742 A/S/A.
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</li>
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<li>
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VBourbon's unique has a built-in recovery, which makes her the perfect choice as the survivor if stamina debuffers show up.
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<!-- TODO: stat line -->
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</li>
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<li>
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Silence Suzuka is coming.
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1200/1145/653/608/1000 A/A/A.
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</li>
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</ol>
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<p>
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I floundered on parenting and ended up with not enough time to make runners.
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Suzuka had more wit than Kitasan could handle, so I rarely got Kitasan uniques.
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</p>
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<p>
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Win rates after 80: VBourbon 31.25%, Kitasan 21.25%, Suzuka 2.5%.
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</p>
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<p>
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Extremely unlucky finals gave me third place for the first time ever.
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</p>
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<Sec h="3" id="cm10">CM10 – Aquarius Cup (February Stakes)</Sec>
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<p>
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Everyone is terrified of Taiki Shuttle, who has a 3-4 ult.
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Triple fronts would like to have a word.
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It's a dirt track, but every horse can run dirt if you're brave enough.
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</p>
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<ol class="list-decimal pl-4 mb-4">
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<li>
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Smart Falcon is the obvious choice, being the only actual dirt front runner to exist.
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Her unique isn't terribly strong for this track, but her gold skills are – Trending makes it extremely difficult for others to overtake her.
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1200/467/920/410/930 A/S/A.
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</li>
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<li>
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Silence Suzuka in runaway mode will make positioning much easier.
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I don't have to think about Unrestrained on my other horses because they won't be able to get in position for it anyway.
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Other Suzukas will be rare because she has G dirt and people don't realize distance aptitude hardly matters for runaways.
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1200/674/820/470/774 B/A/A.
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</li>
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<li>
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Taiki Shuttle is a front runner now.
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She has B dirt and C front at base. Very easy to fix.
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Falco's mid-race is probably stronger than Taiki's between her unique and Trending, so Taiki should often be in position for her ult in this build.
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<!-- TODO: stat line -->
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</li>
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</ol>
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<p>
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This is probably the strongest gameplan I've been able to use, but I failed to execute it properly.
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In particular, this was the CM that taught me through experience how important mid race speed skills are for front runners.
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Final win rate was a bit over 50%, including my first ever five win round 2 entry.
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Insane luck with Unrestrained at the same time as Angling made Suzuka the champion of the Aquarius Cup.
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</p>
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<Sec h="2" id="history">Version History</Sec>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-4">
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<li>2026-05-03: CM13 planning.</li>
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<li>2026-04-27: First draft of mechanics section, had the thought to add my CM plans and results.</li>
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<li>2026-04-27: First draft of intro and career sections</li>
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</ul>
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</article>
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