From b3c8699635552f4421a85eccfd3337b6e4e3625c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Branden J Brown
The numeric value of acceleration depends on the Power stat, dueling, surface aptitude, uphills, race phase, running style. At
- the start of early race, horses accelerate from 3 m/s to the early race base target speed, which varies by race
- distance and running style but is generally on the order of 20 m/s. At the start of late race, if they have enough HP
- remaining for their last spurt, horses accelerate from the mid race base target speed to their spurt speed, which varies by
- speed stat, distance aptitude, running style, race distance, and guts stat, in decreasing order of effect. "Last spurt" and
- "last spurt phase" are different and unrelated things; the latter is only used in the condition for
+ At the start of late race, if they have enough HP remaining for their last spurt, horses accelerate from the mid race base
+ target speed to their spurt speed, which varies by speed stat, distance aptitude, running style, race distance, and guts stat,
+ in decreasing order of effect. "Last spurt" and "last spurt phase" are different and unrelated things; the latter is only used
+ mechanically in the condition for
Speed skills add a flat amount of target speed, generally +0.15 m/s for white skills, +0.25 m/s for double circle skills and @@ -201,36 +200,47 @@ localization of 逃げ nige that technically just means "escape.")
- Runaways are still front runners for all purposes. The main difference is just different numbers for things like base speed - and acceleration, stamina to HP conversion, and distance thresholds for running modes. Other mechanics that are specific to - front runners also apply to runaways. + Runaways are still front runners for all purposes. The difference is just different numbers for things like base speed and + acceleration, stamina to HP conversion, and distance thresholds for running modes. Other mechanics that are specific to front + runners also apply to runaways.
-- On Global today, competitive horses usually have stat lines that are pretty similar to each other. Races, therefore, are more - often won by skills – typically acceleration skills that activate at the start of late race. Front runners have strong - options. + Race base speed is multiplied by the speed strategy–phase coefficient for each horse. As the name suggests, SSPC is + different per running style and per race phase. It's the thing that makes runaways take off in early race, and the thing that + makes pace chaser promotion scary in late race (for those not using any of the correct running style). +
++ Front runners, and even moreso runaways, have particularly punishing SSPC for late race. This makes sense; if they weren't + forced to be substantially slower than the late surgers they're thirty meters ahead of at late race start, then they would be + guaranteed to win every time. +
++ The late race speed difference means that, in a competitive setting, the speed stat (and, correspondingly, distance aptitude) + aren't what make front runners win most of the time. +
+ ++ Generally more important than speed itself (for all running styles) is landing an acceleration skill at the beginning of late + race. The strength of front runners is having the most consistent options for doing so.
- During the first 41.67% of the race, position keep is busy arranging each running style into their respective packs. The - primary mechanism for this is pace down mode (PDM), which activates whenever a horse gets what their style defines as too close - to first place. + The theme among front runner win conditions is requiring being in or very close to first place when late race starts. So, + lesser running styles aside, beating other fronts is a matter of manipulating skills and race mechanics to win in early and + mid race. +
+ ++ During the first 41.67% of the race, position keep is busy arranging each running style into their respective packs. + During position keep, all horses have access to running modes that influence how they run. +
++ The running modes for front runners are speed-up (+4% target speed for first among that front type) and overtake (+5% for + not-first). Entering these modes requires meeting certain conditions relating to positioning, which collectively can be read + as "solo fronts are heavily penalized." They also require passing a wit check, with the same chance for both modes. +
++ The running modes for all other running styles are pace-up, which is similar to speed-up, and paced-down, which activates + whenever a horse gets what their style defines as too close to first place.
Watch a MANT late surger with 1000+ power and wit in a daily legend race. As long as they don't get blocked, they should
- On lesser running styles, early race and sometimes mid race speed skills are effectively converted from distance gain into HP
- conservation via PDM. The thing that really makes front runners good is that they don't have to worry about that – they
- aren't subject to PDM at all. Their mid race speed skills always gain distance.
+ On styles with PDM, early race and sometimes mid race speed skills are effectively converted from distance gain into HP
+ conservation. The thing that really makes front runners good is that they don't have to worry about that – they aren't
+ subject to PDM at all. Their mid race speed skills always gain distance.
- Instead of pace-down and pace-up, front runners have speed-up (+4% target speed for first among that front type) and overtake
- (+5% for not-first) modes. Entering these modes requires meeting certain conditions relating to positioning, which
- collectively can be read as "solo fronts are heavily penalized." They also require passing a wit check, with the same chance
- for both modes.
- Thought experiment.
- Picture two cars driving on a straight freeway, both at exactly 59 mph because I am American, adjacent lanes, keeping exactly
- side by side.
-
- The one on the right then drives 1 mph faster for three seconds, creating a slight gap between them before returning to the
- previous speed. They now maintain this new gap.
-
- There is a 65 mph speed limit sign. As each of the cars pass it, they accelerate at identical rates from 59 to 69 mph over a
- duration of exactly 10.2 seconds.
-
- Since the car on the right is slightly ahead from the speed skill it used, it reaches the speed limit sign first, so it starts
- accelerating first.
-
- Until the left car reaches the sign, the right car is building a speed advantage. Having a higher speed during the accel
- period, it continually increases the gap it had, until both of them have reached the new target speed.
-
- Now the left car drives 1 mph faster for three seconds. It closes the gap between them by the same distance that the right
- car's speed skill had done prior to the speed limit change.
-
- However, since the right car also added a distance advantage over the accel period, it remains slightly ahead of the left car.
-
- This thought experiment shows that speed skills are actually more valuable before late race than during it. Thus, front
- runners not having to worry about PDM is even more of an advantage.
-
- Gate skills are
- GW is an absolutely mandatory skill for all front runners. Even runaway blockers should have it, otherwise they will be passed
- by the normal fronts they're trying to block. It requires three other gate skills, which should be active greens to avoid
- overreliance on wit checks. For reference, the chart below shows proc chances of one of one, one of two, or two of two skills
- with wit checks.
-
- TTL or its white version
- Conc is less critical. It's worth taking on horses who have it, but it isn't worth using support card slots just to get it. On
- the other hand, its white version
For each of runaways and non-runaways, there is at most one spot struggle per race. Runaways will not spot struggle with
non-runaways, nor vice-versa. When a spot struggle triggers, all front runnners of that type within range participate; I've
@@ -381,7 +328,7 @@
analysis.
While under the influence of a skill that increases lane movement speed (shoe icon skills), and while actively changing lanes
(i.e. moving sideways), horses gain a (forward) target speed boost that scales with power. This was a change Global received
@@ -431,12 +378,6 @@
make it last a shorter time, since the horse will return to the rail more quickly.
- Different slopes can be of different angles; the SlopePer parameter is positive for uphills and negative for downhills. SlopePer
- values that currently exist on tracks include 1, 1.5, and 2, positive or negative.
-
Running uphill carries a penalty to target speed. This penalty scales negatively with the power stat; that is, higher power
@@ -488,7 +429,7 @@
Conversely, the HP savings on long downhills can be enough to drop a recovery skill or two on some tracks.
Each section, each horse gets a random modifier to target speed. The modifier's range is determined by the wit stat.
(Curiously, the calculation uses both wit as modified by style proficiency and green skills as well as base wit.)
@@ -523,8 +464,8 @@
- Section speed is generally very small; at {secSpeedS} wit with style S, it has a range of about -0.15% to 0.5% of race base speed.
- For a front runner at {raceLen}m, that translates to an actual speed range of {secSpeedInfo} m/s.
+ Section speed is generally very small. For a {secSpeedS} wit style S front runner at {raceLen}m, it's an actual speed range of {secSpeedInfo}
+ m/s.
It isn't negligible, though, since it applies during the portion of the race where front runners are trying to become frontest
@@ -532,44 +473,176 @@
wit front A horse will pass in {secSpeedPassTime} seconds on average at mid race speeds.
- Race base speed is multiplied by the strategy–phase coefficient for each horse. As the name suggests, SPC is different
- per running style and per race phase. It's the thing that makes runaways take off in early race, and the thing that makes pace
- chaser promotion scary in late race (for those not using any of the correct running style).
+ The NO zone is the 200m portion of the race prior to the first corner. For unclear reasons, while in the NO zone, horses
+ cannot enter overtake lane mode, which is what allows them to move away from the rail. (Overtake lane mode is different from
+ overtake mode, which is a front runner position keep running mode.)
- Front runners, and even moreso runaways, have particularly punishing SPC for late race. This makes sense; if they weren't
- forced to be substantially slower than the late surgers they're thirty meters ahead of at late race start, then they would be
- guaranteed to win every time.
+ Inside the NO zone, if a horse is blocked in front, the only action available to her is to slow down. Speed skills are
+ generally wasted when they fire in the NO zone, unless they are either in the lead or still on the outside from DD or gate
+ position.
- Late race, or more precisely the last spurt, is also the only place where the speed stat and distance aptitude apply. In terms
- of lengths gained, distance S actually does more for front runners than any other style due to SPC.
+ For the most part, there's nothing you can do about the NO zone. The exception to this is with Smart Falcon, who has a speed
+ unique that can fire on any mid race straight. On Tokyo 1600 (both turf and dirt), the first corner is far enough into mid
+ race that Since competitive horses in the MANT+ era tend to have similar stat lines, skills are especially important.
+ Speed skills are especially valuable for front runners, because they assist in overtakes and defense. Some skills are worth
+ special mention.
+
+ Gate skills are
+ GW is an absolutely mandatory skill for all front runners. Even runaway blockers should have it, otherwise they will be passed
+ by the normal fronts they're trying to block. It requires three other gate skills, which should be applicable greens to avoid
+ overreliance on wit checks – for reference, the chart below shows wit check pass chances of one of one, one of two, or
+ two of two skills.
+
+ GW must be combined with
+ Conc is less critical. It's worth taking on horses who have it, but it isn't worth using support card slots just to get it. On
+ the other hand, its white version,
+ Because they are post-Angling, skills that activate in the final spurt are typically less interesting to front runners.
+ Notable exceptions are
+
+ In a typical race, exactly one horse triggered Angling. All other front runners are far behind that horse by the time Pulse
+ can trigger. It's very unlikely they will have enough speed to catch up. So, if a horse has passed the front runner who used
+ Angling, they are almost certainly a different running style.
+
+ The spurt speed calculator analyzes this situation. A 1200 speed front runner with a 0.25 speed
+ skill active has speed equivalent to an 1187 speed pace chaser. In other words, as long as that pace chaser is built the way Global
+ players tend to build, Pulse does not allow the front runner to pass back. So, if you happen to inherit it off a grandparent, it
+ is not worth taking.
+ There are two categories of other horses' skills to think about.
+ The first is stamina debuffs:
+ Eyes especially has the potential to be threatening, since it's roughly unconditional. However, it hits others in vision, which is essentially always a range of 20m. Debuffers are typically built with very little stamina and power, so Eyes is
+ almost never going to reach front runners, especially the front who got Angling.
+
+ The other category of skills to think about is other horses' uniques.
+ Thought experiment.
+ Picture two cars driving on a straight freeway, both at exactly 59 mph because I am American, adjacent lanes, keeping exactly
+ side by side.
+
+ The one on the right then drives 1 mph faster for three seconds, creating a slight gap between them before returning to the
+ previous speed. They now maintain this new gap.
+
+ There is a 65 mph speed limit sign. As each of the cars pass it, they accelerate at identical rates from 59 to 69 mph over a
+ duration of exactly 10.2 seconds. Since the car on the right is slightly ahead from the speed skill it used, it reaches the
+ speed limit sign first, so it starts accelerating first.
+
+ Until the left car reaches the sign, the right car is building a speed advantage. Having a higher speed during the accel
+ period, it continually increases the gap it had, until both of them have reached the new target speed.
+
+ Now the left car drives 1 mph faster for three seconds. It closes the gap between them by the same distance that the right
+ car's speed skill had done prior to the speed limit change. However, since the right car also added a distance advantage over
+ the accel period, it remains slightly ahead of the left car.
+
+ This thought experiment shows that speed skills are actually more valuable before late race than during it. Thus, front
+ runners not having to worry about PDM is even more of an advantage. Everything they want to do for Angling positioning
+ is already the best possible thing to do!
+
Most front runners enjoy easy careers thanks to strong kits and little chance to be blocked. This chapter details the minutia
- of career races, especially in MANT.
+ of training fronts, especially in MANT.
Contrary to advice I sometimes see, you can, in fact, take skills during career without Fast Learner. When you take skills
@@ -597,55 +672,60 @@
your chance of getting skills you don't have hints for.
- Early Lead is a snap take skill. The only time to sit on Early Lead is when you happen to get the first +1 hint
- the turn before inspiration. (Even then, I'd probably still take it.) Early Lead is one of the strongest skills in terms of
- lengths gained, it applies to all tracks and conditions, and it saves late starts, which are your only source of losses
- on most races after junior year. Moreover, it has a base cost of only 120 SP; even if you do get Fast Learner after taking it,
- your opportunity cost was 12 SP. If you prune Early Lead and a hint lands on Fast-Paced or Leader's Pride instead, you gave up
- that potential 12 SP to save 18. It's incredibly good to take early.
+
- On parent runs, or exactly one of your three CM horses, Lone Wolf is another snap take. Base cost of 60 SP for +40 speed,
- which can secure a lot of races, especially early in career. Be extremely careful not to take it on multiple horses on a team. Save
- and quit from the career if you need to check. It's technically better to have it on two horses than zero, but it's tremendously
- better than that to have it on one.
+ On parent runs, or exactly one of your three CM horses,
- Angling and Scheming is a strong consideration as a mid-career take. Inheritance events are more likely to activate green
- sparks than white sparks, so the risk of missing out on SP by taking it early is higher. However, Angling is an almost automatic
- win condition for career (outside a few certain tracks). Taking Angling early can save a lot of clocks, and it can rescue runs that
- don't get what is normally the minimum speed to win races before summer.
+
- Front Runner Savvy is a skill you will pretty much always want at least the first level of. Wit is a strong stat for front
- runners, and Savvy is a guaranteed Groundwork trigger. It's also the second cheapest front-specific skill, after Dodging Danger.
- On parent runs, it might be worth sitting on it until the +2 or +3 hint, because taking the second level gives a slightly boosted
- chance to generate the spark, and hints save twice as much SP on the double circle.
+
- Front Runner Straightaways and Corners are strong and cheap. If you've taken Early Lead and Angling, they probably
- won't change the outcomes of any races, but it's still reasonable to take the first level to prune. As a corollary, outside parent
- runs, you should have a specific distance in mind, so your distance straights/corners should also be quick takes.
+
- If you get a +3 hint, Focus can act as a backup to Early Lead to prevent late starts that can kill your horse. Without a
- +3 hint, it's expensive for the magnitude of its effect. It's also not a great skill for an ace on its own, so it's pretty skippable
- in general if you aren't expecting Conc.
+ If you get a +3 hint from Kitasan and want to prune for Front Straights, Long Corners, Corner Adept, and DD,
- Niigata Junior Stakes is the first non-sprint graded race in career, which means it's very likely to be one you run. It's also
- an oddly anti-front race. Late race starts a good bit past the final corner, which means front runners don't have any skills
- that can secure a win. (Unless you're inheriting Pasta? But VPP isn't really a good take mid-career.)
+ Niigata Junior Stakes is the first non-sprint graded race in career, which means it's very likely to be one you run in MANT.
+ It's also an oddly anti-front race. Late race starts a good bit past the final corner, which means front runners don't have
+ any skills that can secure a win. (Unless you're inheriting Pasta? But VPP isn't really a good take mid-career.)
An interesting consequence of the shape of Niigata 1600 is that duels can start before late race. If you're doing a guts
build, having that happen will give quite a good chunk of accel and speed for the entire spurt, which is usually enough to get
- the win. Duels are also pretty likely, because career races have more runners—as long as you're not a solo front.
+ the win. Duels are also pretty likely, because career races have more runners—as long as you're not a solo front.
- If you do commit to the race and find yourself as the only front runner, switch to pace. You cannot win this race as a solo
- front.
+ If you do commit to the race and find yourself as the only front runner, consider switching to pace. Moreso than other races,
+ you are unlikely to win this race as a solo front. Even one or two other fronts will be rough.
As a corollary, you also cannot win this race with B mile. A miraculous start can get to 350 speed for this race; a B mile
@@ -653,6 +733,7 @@
>spurt calculator
+
+
An even more anti-front track is Ooi 1200 Dirt. This one is actively malicious. Visually, it looks like late race starts on a @@ -664,36 +745,37 @@ win this race, e.g. for the +30 stat epithet for doing it twice, you may want to prioritize a bit of extra speed training, or take Front Straights/Corners. Don't be too surprised if you lose a clock or five to a Taiki Shuttle rival.
+The main concern with 3K races is always stamina. Front runners are punished on long distances because they convert stamina to - HP less efficiently than other styles. + HP less efficiently than other styles, and because Spot Struggle drains an extra chunk.
- A stat line like x/450/x/500/600 should be enough for a guts/wit build to win Kikuka Sho against most rivals, possibly at the + A stat line like x/400/x/500/600 should be enough for a guts/wit build to win Kikuka Sho against most rivals, possibly at the expense of a clock or two. TSS seems to need something more like x/700/x/700/700 if you don't have any recoveries; I haven't tested much without them, because I don't like throwing away my runs.
- Since approximately every front runner career will either be Valentine's Bourbon, whose unique skill has a recovery component,
- or have Bourbon Wit, who gives the option for a guaranteed Moxie hint on her first chain event, you'll almost always have a
- recovery available to take. Kitasan Black is the exception, since she has TTL built in. Regardless, if you end up overstam at
- the end of the run, buying Moxie can be -162 SP, which is certainly not a trivial amount.
+
An alternative option to buying a recovery is to switch to Late Surger for those races. I've won Kikuka Sho with circa 300 - stamina this way. Personally, I've decided I prefer buying Moxie in MANT so that rivals have a chance to give a useful skill, - but it's probably the wrong choice. + stamina this way.
- All that said, the stamina requirement is instantly much higher if the rival is Super Creek, Mejiro McQueen, or Rice Shower. - As rivals, those three will have very strong HP-oriented builds: on TSS, 650 stamina and at least one gold recovery. You will - burn clocks rolling for them to fail wit checks unless you also have a gold. + All that said, the stamina requirement is instantly much higher if the rival is Super Creek, Matikanetannhäuser, Mejiro + McQueen, or Rice Shower. As rivals, those four will have very strong HP-oriented builds: on TSS, 650 stamina and at least one + gold recovery, in addition to the recovery unique in Creek's and Mambo's cases. You will burn clocks rolling for them to fail + wit checks unless you also have a gold.
One last consideration for front runners on 3K races: Angling is a dead skill. If you're borderline on stamina, you'll have a hard time if you're on Long C.
+Kitasan Black doesn't get the easy careers that other front runners do. For one thing, if you're training Kitasan, you